For those who follow my posts you will note that it has been a few more days than usual for me to write about the terrible events in Connecticut. For most of us our immediate reactions and our current views have changed. Our immediate response included disbelief, disgust and depression. These were mostly children after all. This is a reasonable response. Unfortunately the usual response immediately led to the placement of blame, the first and most obvious focused on gun control. Those in favor of more controls said it's time to change the nation's gun laws. The opposite side rightfully points out that these guns were purchased in a state with very restrictive gun laws and purchased legally. I'm not going to get into this debate. In my mind this was much more of a gun safety issue then a gun law issue but both sides have a rational point of view. I don't think anyone would disagree with the need for all guns to be locked up when not in use. Every day 34 people die in america of gun violence. Rarely are these guns taken from a locked case.
Some have extended the discussion to include other logical restriction or safety issues like renewing the assault gun ban, limitations on gun show exemptions, cooperation between localities, state and federal criminal databases, and the end of the sale of weapons of war and armor piercing ammunition, whose only use is to kill police officers. These are all important and maybe we will have this small window to put most in effect. I tend to doubt the cowards that serve in congress will find consensus, but we can always hope.
Finally, we see mental health issues on the table as well. In this case it is obvious that this shooter had such issues which fell between the cracks sometime after his high school graduation. It's hard to call it a crack when it is more of a canyon, but this canyon grew out of mistakes we , as a country made in the 1960's and 70's, and they have come back to haunt us. Before that time the mentally ill were mistreated inside terrible mental health institutions. It was important to change the abuse taking place in these institutions but the solution was at least as bad as the problem. As institutions were closed we saw the mentally ill become a large part of the prison population as well as a large portion of the homeless population. In 1955 there was one psychiatric bed for every 300 Americans. By 2005 there was one psychiatric bed for every 3,000 Americans. Additionally, mental health was never considered part of health. Until mental health is part of our definition of health the problem will continue to grow.
As anyone who is part of a family knows, each family contains members who need mental health solutions. Very few get what they need. The Surgeon General's best current estimate is that 19% of all American's have some form of mental illness. If that sounds scary, it is because even the term “mental illness” presses some major buttons in our minds. While most are totally functional, it is estimated that 2.3% have work disabilities and up to 15% have functional disabilities due to their mental issues. In 1983 6.4% of inmates were considered severely mentally ill. Today that number is 16% and growing. Now more than three times more seriously mentally ill persons are in jails and prisons than in hospitals. The last time we have seen numbers like this was in the 1840's.
As far as our prison population’s growth, there are now more Americans in jail -- 6 million -- than there were in Stalin's Gulag, reports Fareed Zakaria, in a column called "Incarceration Nation." We have gone from 150 inmates per 100,000 in US population to over 760 inmates per 100,000. (An increase of 500%). In addition, a large reason for this explosive growth includes both the incarceration of both the mentally ill and those convicted of drug offences, both of which we know would be better treated in hospitals, not jails.
I could go on and on quoting both gun control and mental health statistics but we all know that one important difference between the past and the present is that any solution today will require the reduction of costs in one area (like incarcerations) and an increase in others (mainly mental health and drug rehabilitation). We are no longer capable of just throwing money at both. The results have been unacceptable. To change, as a country, we will need to accept a few realities:
1. Gun ownership is here to stay and a part of our american life. I live in upstate New York and almost everyone owns a gun. They use them to hunt, target shoot or just for protection. The left will have to accept this fact. At the same time most gun owners understand that none of these reasons to own firearms explain the sale of weapons of war, armor piercing ammunition or the need for high capacity magazines. We all give up some of our rights for the good of our fellow citizens. We can’t yell fire in a theater and we can have any kind of gun we want anytime we want. That’s life. It may not be fair be we can’t be spoiled children if we care about our children.
2. The war on drugs has FAILED. Period. It’s time to stop putting people in jail for what people have been doing for thousands of years and will most likely continue for the foreseeable future. We would be much better off as a county to keep these people out of our jails and in rehabilitation centers where they might actually get help with their problems (and save a lot more money as hospitals cost a lot less than prisons).
3. We must accept that health includes mental health. You cannot separate the two. You can not be healthy if you are not mentally healthy. We must take the stigma out of this disease. If you need a Xanax to feel less anxiety you should be no more ashamed of that than you would needing 2 Advil to feel less back pain. Mental health should be a right, whether you are a student or soldier, a minor or a senior. We all benefit when those that need mental health solutions get them. No one believes that this also wouldn't save money. (By the way, both mentally ill and or drug addicted inmate costs the system more than “normal inmates”.)
The window is open. It won’t be open very long. If we don’t see the big picture now and let go of our biases and systematic denial of the facts we may never solve our problems. Americans have always been innovators. We have a history of creative problem solving. This is one we can solve. The President has requested that the Vice President report back to the nation by the end of January with solutions. If all of these issues are not part of the solution horrendous acts such as we have seen last week will simply happen again.
Friday, December 21, 2012
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
"I'm Not Giving It Away!!!!" (Economics 101)
For a real estate broker, one of the most common comments we hear is "I'm not giving it away." All good brokers get to be pretty good actors and actresses and hide their true reactions to that statement. I sometimes believe it's possible to track the marketplace by how often in a given period of time I hear that statement. The more I hear it the more I know it's a buyers market, the less, a sellers market. We are pre-programmed to want the best deal (for ourselves), and while we think we are all sensible data driven people, we are equally programmed to view data mostly from our biased point of view.
I partially blame our educational system. The lack of understanding basic economic principles starts in elementary school and continues through college. This failure to understand even the most common economic vocabulary terms (such as the meaning and use of the word the "Market”) makes matters worse. By definition, a "market is the process by which the prices of goods and services are established." To further understand a market, some additional information is helpful. For example, for a market to be competitive, it should have multiple players (buyers and sellers). If fact, the more buyers and sellers, the more "competitive" the marketplace. All markets should have as a goal the maximum amount of competition.
If the numbers on either side of a market transaction are smaller than the opposing side, it can become either a "buyers market" or a "sellers market." This is not an opinion. This is simply the way the markets work. The typical pricing of a product or service includes the cost of materials, labor and a desired profit (or in the case of a service, the actual cost plus a desired profit). Under normal circumstances the only real variable is the profit margin, however in a market with a lack of either buyers or sellers, this formula may not work. If I want to buy a bag of popcorn in a movie theater I am likely to pay far more for this product then by simply walking outside the theater. Conversely if you bought a parcel of land, installed the infrastructure, foundation and finally the house itself, its' cost would reflect the price of all those parts of the final product. It is assumed that these prices would be arrived at through a competitive process.
To further our example let's say that final cost of the complete house (including land and infrastructure) was $250,000.00. Two years pass and we find ourselves in a deep recession. The market which for the past several years always had more buyers then sellers and the price reflected this fact. The recession grows deeper and after two more years of falling prices the actual price of replacing the house has dropped 10% due to lower costs (both materials and labor) and a smaller profit margin. This new replacement price might be $225,000.00. In reality however, because the seller is now selling a "used" house and the market for these houses will have dropped far more the the 10% reflected in materials, labor and profits, but instead has dropped 25% (which would be $187,500.00) and as there are now far more sellers then buyers, a comparative analysis (actual sales data) shows this house would sell for approximately $167,500.00.
While most people understand the above example, for some reason when the real estate broker (under practices and principles in state law) recommends a listing price of between $170,000 and $190,000. "I'm not giving it away" is likely to be the response. It's now time for the popcorn story. Seriously, this exact conversation is taking place daily all over the country. While there are areas of the country that have recovered better then others, there are very few variations of this conversation.
Now I understand that for many people there are extenuating circumstances. Some may owe more then the current value, some may need to move to a new location for a job or some other personal reason, some may have assumed that when they sold their house they would have enough "left over" funds to retire or worse, retire and buy another house. All of these are understandable, but don't change the facts. I was offered $800,000 for my own home in 2007. I paid $250,000 for that home and have put another $250,000 into improvements. Even with all these improvements I know that I would be lucky to get $400,000.00 if I had to sell it today. That's a $50,000 real cash loss (and $300,000 imaginary loss) in my mind from the high value that existed in 2007.
Unfortunately markets are not nice. Markets are not fair. Markets are simply markets. My way of advising my clients in these situations is to explain the above, adding this: "People fall into two categories, those seeking pleasure and those trying to get away from pain." You would think that those trying to get away from pain (like a potential foreclosure or just growing debt) would be the most motivated to end this problem as soon as possible, but you'd be wrong. I've continued to be amazed at people who really do need to sell their homes who fail to see this need and continue to price their home to high, above the market price (or current value). Some actually believe that they are "motivated" because every few months they reduce the price by 5% or 10% (while the actual market value is 15%-20% lower). Surprise, surprise, this marketing technique never works.
On the other hand, those that are pleasure seekers face reality and price their homes where the data shows them the market is. Some lose money, some make less then they wanted to but all move on with their lives. This is ultimately the question. When I sold my last house in 1986 I sold it for $350,000. It's worth 1.5 million now. I never look back. I never count my imagined loss. It made me able to move to my current home which I love and has now become the "family" home. I'm happy. Be happy. It's your choice.
I partially blame our educational system. The lack of understanding basic economic principles starts in elementary school and continues through college. This failure to understand even the most common economic vocabulary terms (such as the meaning and use of the word the "Market”) makes matters worse. By definition, a "market is the process by which the prices of goods and services are established." To further understand a market, some additional information is helpful. For example, for a market to be competitive, it should have multiple players (buyers and sellers). If fact, the more buyers and sellers, the more "competitive" the marketplace. All markets should have as a goal the maximum amount of competition.
If the numbers on either side of a market transaction are smaller than the opposing side, it can become either a "buyers market" or a "sellers market." This is not an opinion. This is simply the way the markets work. The typical pricing of a product or service includes the cost of materials, labor and a desired profit (or in the case of a service, the actual cost plus a desired profit). Under normal circumstances the only real variable is the profit margin, however in a market with a lack of either buyers or sellers, this formula may not work. If I want to buy a bag of popcorn in a movie theater I am likely to pay far more for this product then by simply walking outside the theater. Conversely if you bought a parcel of land, installed the infrastructure, foundation and finally the house itself, its' cost would reflect the price of all those parts of the final product. It is assumed that these prices would be arrived at through a competitive process.
To further our example let's say that final cost of the complete house (including land and infrastructure) was $250,000.00. Two years pass and we find ourselves in a deep recession. The market which for the past several years always had more buyers then sellers and the price reflected this fact. The recession grows deeper and after two more years of falling prices the actual price of replacing the house has dropped 10% due to lower costs (both materials and labor) and a smaller profit margin. This new replacement price might be $225,000.00. In reality however, because the seller is now selling a "used" house and the market for these houses will have dropped far more the the 10% reflected in materials, labor and profits, but instead has dropped 25% (which would be $187,500.00) and as there are now far more sellers then buyers, a comparative analysis (actual sales data) shows this house would sell for approximately $167,500.00.
While most people understand the above example, for some reason when the real estate broker (under practices and principles in state law) recommends a listing price of between $170,000 and $190,000. "I'm not giving it away" is likely to be the response. It's now time for the popcorn story. Seriously, this exact conversation is taking place daily all over the country. While there are areas of the country that have recovered better then others, there are very few variations of this conversation.
Now I understand that for many people there are extenuating circumstances. Some may owe more then the current value, some may need to move to a new location for a job or some other personal reason, some may have assumed that when they sold their house they would have enough "left over" funds to retire or worse, retire and buy another house. All of these are understandable, but don't change the facts. I was offered $800,000 for my own home in 2007. I paid $250,000 for that home and have put another $250,000 into improvements. Even with all these improvements I know that I would be lucky to get $400,000.00 if I had to sell it today. That's a $50,000 real cash loss (and $300,000 imaginary loss) in my mind from the high value that existed in 2007.
Unfortunately markets are not nice. Markets are not fair. Markets are simply markets. My way of advising my clients in these situations is to explain the above, adding this: "People fall into two categories, those seeking pleasure and those trying to get away from pain." You would think that those trying to get away from pain (like a potential foreclosure or just growing debt) would be the most motivated to end this problem as soon as possible, but you'd be wrong. I've continued to be amazed at people who really do need to sell their homes who fail to see this need and continue to price their home to high, above the market price (or current value). Some actually believe that they are "motivated" because every few months they reduce the price by 5% or 10% (while the actual market value is 15%-20% lower). Surprise, surprise, this marketing technique never works.
On the other hand, those that are pleasure seekers face reality and price their homes where the data shows them the market is. Some lose money, some make less then they wanted to but all move on with their lives. This is ultimately the question. When I sold my last house in 1986 I sold it for $350,000. It's worth 1.5 million now. I never look back. I never count my imagined loss. It made me able to move to my current home which I love and has now become the "family" home. I'm happy. Be happy. It's your choice.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Getting Away From It All
Everyone
needs to get away from time to time and here in the northeast if you are the
outdoor type you might be thinking snowboarding, skiing, hiking or some other
typical winter sport, but you should know that other options are just as close
and as much fun as the standard sports. Here in Greene county there are a
number of large property owners that have created private cottages and camping
sites available for rent at very reasonable prices. If you never thought of
roughing it, don't worry, you can limit the "rough" part. Follow the
links below to see spaces you won't believe available.
One
of my favorite such couples are Mark and Carin DeNat who have created an
incredible country experience just 8 miles outside of Saugerties, NY called The Awakening Garden. You will get to know Mark and Carin pretty well
just from the beautiful way they have created this special place. Carin (who was born in China and came here
as a teen) is the gentle spirit that conceived and created this wonderful 98
acre site. The zen touches makes this a great place to breathe and retreat into
yourself. Mark, a retired NASDAQ guy is the assistant who helps to manage and
executes many of Carin's ideas adding his own special touches.
There
are 4 options for both comfort and pricing, the least expensive being the Teepee. (That's
right. If you ever wanted a completely unique experience for only $30 a night,
this space is for you.) Even if you are tent people, let's face it, leave it
home for this trip. If for no other reason then bragging rights, this is the
ultimate tent experience.
For
a step up in comfort, take a look at the Twin Oaks Cabin.
This 140 square foot cabin has a antique wood stove to keep you toasty on even
the coldest winter night. The cabin includes a sleeping loft with a stained
glass window that will bring the lights of the rainbow to your morning wake up.
As is typical of all of Mark and Carin's spaces, this cabin has a beautiful rug
and the colors of the cabin all lend an Asian feel to this space, sometimes
inhabited by yogis from near and far, so the vibes are really good. The site
also includes a great campfire site with barbecue. This cabin rents for $75 a
night.
If you need a bit more space you might take a look at one of my favorites places, Thoreau'sCabin. Renting for $80 a night this cabin was made using many long saved recycled windows, doors and other materials, including beautiful stained glass. Spend the days under the tall tree canopy right outside your door, the evenings siting in front of the antique wood stove. With all the windows on this cabin you'll love the view.
Finally,
for total decadence try the Yurt with Bathhouse.
Located on a separate parcel just 4 miles from Awakening Gardens, this is
special place. Built to house family and friends, this Yurt is now available
and priced at just $275 a weekend (in season plus a $30 cleaning fee). To truly
understand the beauty and luxury of this yurt with bathhouse you should look at
the tour to view each in the large format pictures and notice the beautiful
touches the DeNats have added to this experience. (How many bathhouses have a
sitting area and meditation space?) Take your time looking at this one.
For addition information please call Carin DeNat at:(Cell) 845-706-0134 or email her at: info@awakeninggarden.com
One
of my favorite such couples are Mark and Carin DeNat who have created an
incredible country experience just 8 miles outside of Saugerties, NY called The Awakening Garden. You will get to know Mark and Carin pretty well
just from the beautiful way they have created this special place. Carin (who was born in China and came here
as a teen) is the gentle spirit that conceived and created this wonderful 98
acre site. The zen touches makes this a great place to breathe and retreat into
yourself. Mark, a retired NASDAQ guy is the assistant who helps to manage and
executes many of Carin's ideas adding his own special touches.
If you need a bit more space you might take a look at one of my favorites places, Thoreau'sCabin. Renting for $80 a night this cabin was made using many long saved recycled windows, doors and other materials, including beautiful stained glass. Spend the days under the tall tree canopy right outside your door, the evenings siting in front of the antique wood stove. With all the windows on this cabin you'll love the view.
Finally,
for total decadence try the Yurt with Bathhouse.
Located on a separate parcel just 4 miles from Awakening Gardens, this is
special place. Built to house family and friends, this Yurt is now available
and priced at just $275 a weekend (in season plus a $30 cleaning fee). To truly
understand the beauty and luxury of this yurt with bathhouse you should look at
the tour to view each in the large format pictures and notice the beautiful
touches the DeNats have added to this experience. (How many bathhouses have a
sitting area and meditation space?) Take your time looking at this one. For addition information please call Carin DeNat at:(Cell) 845-706-0134 or email her at: info@awakeninggarden.com
Friday, November 30, 2012
The Other Kind of Privacy- Property Postings
Although there are many reasons people move from the city to the country, some of the most common include the desire for a little elbow room and some privacy. I am always surprised when I found out what my real estate clients mean when I ask them to define both. When I lived in Manhattan “elbow room” was measured in small amounts of square feet and the difference between a large apartment and a small one could be as little as 100 square feet (just 10’ by 10’), and if you wanted privacy, forget about it. There is no such thing. The solution for some of us was to purchase a second home upstate.
I lucked out. The short story was that in 1985 I had two kids, a 3 and 5 year old who both needed to go to school in Manhattan. At least at that time this meant private school. With limited resources we went with a school in the village, Little Red on Sixth Avenue. No Dalton, but safe and reasonable. I used to call it “10 fingers and 10 toes.” (This meant I was relatively sure my kids would come home with the same amount of digits they left our loft with in the morning.) It costs $10,000 per kid per year back then. I have no idea what that would cost today. The bottom line was that we had purchased a vacation home with relatives upstate and while writing the check for the 1985-86 school year we decided we needed a big change. We bought out the other relatives (partners) and decided to go “Green Acres,” and in 1986 we sold our loft and moved permanently to East Durham, New York.
As I said, we lucked out. Our new home was at the end of a dead end road. It is 98 acres with two streams, a 1 acre pond and fully treed. Once we thinned some of our south facing trees we got awesome views of the mountains. Better yet we were surrounded by other large parcels so we have unbelievable privacy. Always looking ahead I started to research the best ways to reduce our taxes, knowing that this was going to be our biggest growing budget number. I didn't want to deal with ever increasing property taxes so I found out about Section 480-a of the tax code which allows for a large tax abatement if the landowner complied with an approved NYS forestry plan. New York State allows such a plan on parcels with 50 or more acres of wooded property. I’m saving a full explanation of this plan for a future post but if you are interested just follow this LINK and read about the process.
One of the requirements for this tax reduction plan involves the marking and posting of your property. Marking is easy. This means you would pick a symbol, mine are two horizontal blue lines, and paint the symbol on boundary trees. The posting requirement is a bit more involved. Whether you are posting for NYS Forestry reasons or just to keep others off your property, the requirements are the same. Below are the important steps and requirements for proper posting in New York State:
There are a few other things that might be helpful. The first is that you have no obligation to post. Anyone who trespasses is still legally a trespasser The property does not have to be posted to prosecute the offender, but it is much more likely that a judge will prosecute the offender if the property is properly posted. You may also post only a portion of your property. You can include language on the signs that require permission for entry. This serves multiple purposes. By giving permission to some people for some activities you will be in a better position if any adverse possession issues come up. It also lets the public know that if asked, permission might be granted.
One of the funniest things that has ever happened to me, and says something about the times we live in took place a few years ago. As I said, my property is very large with multiple streams. One of those streams has a series of waterfalls, one of which has over a 50 foot drop and is very dramatic. In the winter it is simply beautiful. One day a brand new Land Cruiser pulled up to my front door and a handsome, well dressed man got out and introduced himself as “almost” a neighbor. By “almost” he meant that his property bordered a parcel that bordered my property. After the introduction he asked me what I still consider to be the stupidest question I ever heard. “My wife and I love your property and walk it all the time. Can we buy your waterfall?”
At first I thought that he was kidding, but he wasn't Once I realized that he actually meant it, I told him “NO” and reminded him that he was trespassing and should ask permission if he ever wanted to enter it again. While this may seem like an un-neighborly thing to do, it wasn't It was simply protective. Whether the property is posted or not, the General Obligations Law protects landowners from liability for non-paying recreationalists on their property. Because of this protection, recreational liability lawsuits against rural landowners are uncommon, however this protection does not apply in cases of willful or malicious failure to guard or warn against dangers. The problem with this is that “willful or malicious failure to guard or warn against dangers” is not specific and is interpretable. A rope or dropped tree across a path on the property could be a viewed as a danger and as we have become a very litigious people, not something a landowner should take jokingly. Remember, some crazy woman successfully sued McDonald's for a scalding she claimed she got from a cup of hot coffee. I’d take no chances. Murphy’s Law is real and the best way to protect yourself is to protect your property rights. I will always give neighbors the right to walk my property, but do expect a call for permission. It would be best for you to protect yourself as well. Click here to download the "Ask Permission Slip" (26kb pdf).
I lucked out. The short story was that in 1985 I had two kids, a 3 and 5 year old who both needed to go to school in Manhattan. At least at that time this meant private school. With limited resources we went with a school in the village, Little Red on Sixth Avenue. No Dalton, but safe and reasonable. I used to call it “10 fingers and 10 toes.” (This meant I was relatively sure my kids would come home with the same amount of digits they left our loft with in the morning.) It costs $10,000 per kid per year back then. I have no idea what that would cost today. The bottom line was that we had purchased a vacation home with relatives upstate and while writing the check for the 1985-86 school year we decided we needed a big change. We bought out the other relatives (partners) and decided to go “Green Acres,” and in 1986 we sold our loft and moved permanently to East Durham, New York.
As I said, we lucked out. Our new home was at the end of a dead end road. It is 98 acres with two streams, a 1 acre pond and fully treed. Once we thinned some of our south facing trees we got awesome views of the mountains. Better yet we were surrounded by other large parcels so we have unbelievable privacy. Always looking ahead I started to research the best ways to reduce our taxes, knowing that this was going to be our biggest growing budget number. I didn't want to deal with ever increasing property taxes so I found out about Section 480-a of the tax code which allows for a large tax abatement if the landowner complied with an approved NYS forestry plan. New York State allows such a plan on parcels with 50 or more acres of wooded property. I’m saving a full explanation of this plan for a future post but if you are interested just follow this LINK and read about the process.
- You must own or have land use rights on the property to be posted.
- Signs must bear the name and address of the owner, lawful occupant or other person or organization authorized to post the area. The first names can be only initials (so mine simply say H&C Zucker) and the address need only be the town, not actual street address (so mine simply says East Durham, NY. My post office address is actually a different town, Cairo, but because the property is actually in East Durham my signs must say East Durham, not Cairo.)
- The sign must be at least 11” by 11” and the written part must take up at least 9” by 9” or 80% of the sign.
- The sign must bear a conspicuous statement which shall either consist of the word "POSTED" or warn against entry for specified purposes or all purposeswithout the consent of the person whose name appears on the sign.
- At least one sign must be set on each side of the protected area and on each side of all corners that can be reasonably identified. Signs should be no more than 660 feet apart, close to or along the boundaries of the protected area. Since the signs must be conspicuous, they should be high enough, and spaced closely enough to be seen. Please don't turn your property into an eyesore by using more signs than are necessary, although I do recommend that on street boundaries where the most trespassers may come from I shrink the distance and put signs every 200 to 300 feet.
- Signs must be maintained annually by the landowner.
One of the requirements for this tax reduction plan involves the marking and posting of your property. Marking is easy. This means you would pick a symbol, mine are two horizontal blue lines, and paint the symbol on boundary trees. The posting requirement is a bit more involved. Whether you are posting for NYS Forestry reasons or just to keep others off your property, the requirements are the same. Below are the important steps and requirements for proper posting in New York State:
There are a few other things that might be helpful. The first is that you have no obligation to post. Anyone who trespasses is still legally a trespasser The property does not have to be posted to prosecute the offender, but it is much more likely that a judge will prosecute the offender if the property is properly posted. You may also post only a portion of your property. You can include language on the signs that require permission for entry. This serves multiple purposes. By giving permission to some people for some activities you will be in a better position if any adverse possession issues come up. It also lets the public know that if asked, permission might be granted.
One of the funniest things that has ever happened to me, and says something about the times we live in took place a few years ago. As I said, my property is very large with multiple streams. One of those streams has a series of waterfalls, one of which has over a 50 foot drop and is very dramatic. In the winter it is simply beautiful. One day a brand new Land Cruiser pulled up to my front door and a handsome, well dressed man got out and introduced himself as “almost” a neighbor. By “almost” he meant that his property bordered a parcel that bordered my property. After the introduction he asked me what I still consider to be the stupidest question I ever heard. “My wife and I love your property and walk it all the time. Can we buy your waterfall?”
At first I thought that he was kidding, but he wasn't Once I realized that he actually meant it, I told him “NO” and reminded him that he was trespassing and should ask permission if he ever wanted to enter it again. While this may seem like an un-neighborly thing to do, it wasn't It was simply protective. Whether the property is posted or not, the General Obligations Law protects landowners from liability for non-paying recreationalists on their property. Because of this protection, recreational liability lawsuits against rural landowners are uncommon, however this protection does not apply in cases of willful or malicious failure to guard or warn against dangers. The problem with this is that “willful or malicious failure to guard or warn against dangers” is not specific and is interpretable. A rope or dropped tree across a path on the property could be a viewed as a danger and as we have become a very litigious people, not something a landowner should take jokingly. Remember, some crazy woman successfully sued McDonald's for a scalding she claimed she got from a cup of hot coffee. I’d take no chances. Murphy’s Law is real and the best way to protect yourself is to protect your property rights. I will always give neighbors the right to walk my property, but do expect a call for permission. It would be best for you to protect yourself as well. Click here to download the "Ask Permission Slip" (26kb pdf).
The Benefits of being a Green Landlord
Like every other business, residential property management has changed to match this new internet based business model that has become the new normal and while most real estate has yet to “come back” to the value of just a few years ago, apartments are one real estate asset that has keep it’s value. I would be lying if I didn't say that my real estate investments have been my most predictable income stream and the main reason this recession has been bearable. A few years ago I decided that I should take my own advice and Green up my apartament's and it may be the time for you to do the same. The process has three steps: greening the marketing/application process, greening the apartment painting and preparation area and finally making each unit and the building as a whole, more energy efficient.
The best part of greening the marketing and advertising section of your job is that it requires less work and is faster and simpler than the paper version of the same job. To start with, I’ll assume you are already marketing on Craigslist or some other online classified listing site. To fully take advantage of these sites remember that the busier the market, the more that is posted, the less face time your ad will have with the limited quality prospective tenants. That means that you need to refresh your listing every week by removing them and then replacing them with an updated version which will move your ad up the daily listings. Secondly, take advantage of the 4 pictures you are allowed to upload with your listing and take your time to show the best features of that particular apartment. If the building itself is impressive, use a picture of the building in the ad as well.
In your ad try to list all the information you want prospective tenants to know, leave nothing out. This information should include what would like to highlight about the apartment and building amenities, as well as any of the shortcomings that particular apartment might have. You might want to ask why would I tell you to include any of the negatives in the apartment but the reason should be obvious, if those negatives are going to bother the prospective tenant when they see the apartment, you would be better off not wasting time with that match. An example would be that I have a number of apartments with very small kitchens and I really can’t hide that. I know that anybody who does a lot of cooking is not to want one of those apartments and so it would be wise for me to tell prospective tenants because I know that for many people, a small kitchen is unimportant. Any correspondence with the prospective tenant can be used as a filtering device.
Now that you’ve limited the wrong tenants and found a needs matching potential tenant try to continue to keep the process electronic. I create all my applications, disclosures, and blank lease forms in Google docs so that I can simply “share” these documents with my potential tenant. I have them email me permission to run a credit check and return the documents with this “sharing” once they credit check comes back as a go-ahead. This takes care of my legal position in running a credit check and also verify their email address and contact information. I then ask them if the lease is acceptable and then to either scan the documents and email back to me as a .pdf file or mail to hard copies via snail mail to my office address. I then can send them back a fully executed lease, also as a .pdf file.
Included in my application process is the requirement for an e-mail address and a cell phone number and permission to use text messages and email as the default communication method. Once completed I know I can communicate with my tenant with a minimum of effort.
The second part of the Greening process is all the work in the apartment itself. I include three separate areas in this process. The first is cleaning, the second painting and the third is windows and appliances. For anybody who has followed my posts this year there should be at least a few related to using non-toxic, biodegradable, natural cleaning products so I won’t go into that right now. These products were named and linked in my 11/6/12 post. Using these natural products will not only save you money but will give you a giant marketing advantage in marketing your apartments as Green.
As most apartments get painted at least every three years so it’s important to know that almost all of the major paint manufacturers have a line of either no VOC’s or low VOCs. (VOC’s are Volatile Organic Compounds, which are gases that may have both short and long term health issues. These new paint’s have about a 10% premium in pricing but have two major advantages in usage. The first is there is no smell from the paint (it’s the smell that are those chemicals) and so it is both pleasant to paint as well as a nice for the tenant moving in to not have that “latex” smell in the apartment. The second advantage is the ability to market the apartment to a progressive thinking tenant. Landlords sometimes have a view of their tenants that does not match reality. We sometimes use reverse-discrimination and believe that only high income tenants care about environmental air quality but from real-life experience I can tell you that this is not the case. While you may not be able to get a higher rent from low income tenants you will get a better quality tenant from Greening even your least expensive apartment.
A few more suggestions:
Use only one interior color in painting all apartments. This means ceilings, walls and woodwork will get one color.
Pick a color that is neutral, that you think anyone would like and make that the color of every apartment in that property. I use either Benjamin Moore Linen White or Benjamin Moore Antique White. All other paint manufacturers will match either of those colors. Since 2011 almost all of the paint manufacturers have gone to low VOC paint formula as well as having a VOC free version.
At least once a year, or maybe once the lease is signed with the new tenant, the tenant will ask you if they can paint one room, or in some cases a more than one room a different color. Your answer should always be no. (If you absolutely have to give in you should add an amount equal to two times the cost of repainting the apartment as additional security deposit.)
Use either flat or eggshell on ceilings and walls and semigloss or gloss for all woodwork.
Use only one interior color in painting all apartments. This means ceilings, walls and woodwork will get one color.
Pick a color that is neutral, that you think anyone would like and make that the color of every apartment in that property. I use either Benjamin Moore Linen White or Benjamin Moore Antique White. All other paint manufacturers will match either of those colors. Since 2011 almost all of the paint manufacturers have gone to low VOC paint formula as well as having a VOC free version.
At least once a year, or maybe once the lease is signed with the new tenant, the tenant will ask you if they can paint one room, or in some cases a more than one room a different color. Your answer should always be no. (If you absolutely have to give in you should add an amount equal to two times the cost of repainting the apartment as additional security deposit.)
Use either flat or eggshell on ceilings and walls and semigloss or gloss for all woodwork.
The last step greening your apartment building is to make each unit as energy efficient as possible. If you are here in the Northeast that means that the biggest bang for the buck is in weatherizing. On a purely selfish level most of the appliances may be owned by you but the electrical usage is billed to the tenant so while you may want to modernize the apartment (for rental reasons) with a new refrigerator, your best return on investment will be in saving money in heating costs. The more you keep the utility costs down, the more you make. On a per apartment basis the bulk of the heat lost in each apartment is due to the windows (and window frames) and exterior electrical outlets. The exterior electrical outlets can be insulated easily by purchasing electrical outlet insulator’s at your local hardware store. They are typically sold in packs of 10 for $1.99. Best two bucks you’ll ever spend.
The windows and window frames are not so simple. First you need to access the situation. What type and the age of the windows are is important. Most home or apartment windows are called double hung and have a movable lower and upper pane and are either single pane or double pane (sometimes called an insulated window.) If your windows are relatively new and are double pane windows you need go no further. However if these are the older single pane windows the next question would be “Is there a storm window outside this window?” If there is a storm window all we would need to do is to make sure it was working properly. If there are no storm window’s then the option would be to either completely replace the window’s (with a cost of $250-$500/window), put on a storm window (with a cost of $65-$100/window) or install an interior storm (with a cost of $100/window.)
I can’t tell you which is best for you. The return on investment is only one part of the equation.
New windows also have a marketing value in addition to saving you operating expenses. Certainly if you can afford to replace the old windows this would be your best choice, however almost as important as the windows is the frame the window is sitting in. In most cases the window itself was put into a frame with a quarter inch gap on all sides (called a rough opening). The window was then shimmed and nailed. The gap was then filled with fiberglass insulation and then trimmed out and painted. In most cases even if it’s a new window it might have been installed this way. The best thing to do then is to take off the casement trim on the window and see if the insulation is fiberglass or foam. if the insulation is foam you can close it up and be happy you have a well sealed house. However if it is fiberglass insulation you will need to remove the insulation and replace with non-expanding foam. (Expanding foam would ruin the window so make sure the foam you purchase is non-expanding.)
New windows also have a marketing value in addition to saving you operating expenses. Certainly if you can afford to replace the old windows this would be your best choice, however almost as important as the windows is the frame the window is sitting in. In most cases the window itself was put into a frame with a quarter inch gap on all sides (called a rough opening). The window was then shimmed and nailed. The gap was then filled with fiberglass insulation and then trimmed out and painted. In most cases even if it’s a new window it might have been installed this way. The best thing to do then is to take off the casement trim on the window and see if the insulation is fiberglass or foam. if the insulation is foam you can close it up and be happy you have a well sealed house. However if it is fiberglass insulation you will need to remove the insulation and replace with non-expanding foam. (Expanding foam would ruin the window so make sure the foam you purchase is non-expanding.)
There will always be more to do when winterizing your apartment building and the apartments within. If the apartment has it’s own thermostat, switching to a programmable EnergyStar® thermostat will help. Once your improvement’s are made your marketing can begin. You will be amazed at the results of simply adding Green to your marketing campaign. Good luck. If you do it right, it will mean more green in your pocket.
Best Towns with Public Transportation in Upstate New York
All of the counties north of New York City are great places for a second home in upstate New York. Generally one of the most important issues facing city folk in deciding where the best place is how long will it take to get there. When I moved up to East Durham in 1986 it had to be in the 2 ½- 3 hour driving range (this of course does not include traffic time.) While driving time was most important to me, today the younger crowd is much more ecological and while time is still one of the most important issues, many now travel by train or bus and this changes the equation considerably. To that end let me show you the public transportation (trains, buses, shuttles and local transportation) options and the best places to look for a home.
I will make some assumptions before I begin to explain these options. The first criteria that I am going to assume is a 3 ½ hour maximum trip (not counting the time from the arriving bus or train station to your upstate home.) I will assume only train or bus transportation. Lastly, as a Realtor® I will remind you that there will be a relationship between these bus and train stations and the price of housing. An example, the closer to NYC the more expensive the housing. The closer to a bus or train station the more expensive.
To begin, below is the northern Amtrack stops and schedules for the Adirondack Route which leaves Penn Station in NYC and travels north to Montreal. If you look at the schedule (below) you will be able to see the timeline for each stop. (Example: If you took the 8:15 am train from NYC to Hudson, NY you would arrive at 10:15 am.)
For additional calculations (east or west of the train stops) it is worth adding 2 minutes per mile to your ultimate destination. Example: If you were to calculate travel time from Penn Station to the Town of Cairo the travel time would be 2 hours (Penn Station to Hudson, NY) plus 28 minutes to Cairo, NY (14 miles west of Hudson, NY) for total travel time of 2 hours 28 minutes. To extrapolate, if you wanted to travel further north you would need to stay closer to the station, if you were willing to spend more for a second home, you could purchase closer to Croton-Harmon, Poughkeepsie or Rhinecliff, NY, the 3 stops closer to NYC which would allow you either a shorter trip or the time to travel to a town east or west and still stay in the same 2 ½ -3 hour travel limit.
Using this schedule and the 3 ½ hour limit you could look all the way up the Hudson River to Saratoga Springs. There is bus service (with 4 routes) from Hudson to Albany through most of the most popular Columbia County towns. For more in depth information for local transportation for Columbia County, Greene County, Dutchess County, Ulster County & Sullivan County for bus routes click HERE. For more information for shuttle services closer to Hudson, click HERE.
The bus transportation availability is a bit more complex.HERE is the Trailway Bus Line map which includes 11 other carriers. For practical purposes this is the most relevant section, which includes the most popular towns from Newburgh to Oneonta and from Poughkeepsie to Stanford. Note the insert from Haines Falls to Hunter. The travel time from Port Authority Terminal (on 42nd Street) to Saugerties is 2 ½ hours, NYC to Phoenicia is 2 hours 45 minutes.
From a real estate POV, the important thing to remember is that while the closer to NYC the higher the hosue prices will be, there are also other variables like hipness, closeness to shopping and activities (like fishing or skiing) that will add value/price to real estate in these towns and hamlets. Towns like Woodstock and Phoenicia will have a premium (for hipness), Windham and Hunter (for views and closeness to skiing), Kingston, Saugerties and Catskill for Hudson River access and any town along the Esopus Creek, Woodland Valley, the East branches of the Delaware, East and West Kills, Batavia Kill and the Catskill Creek for great fishing.
If you haven’t bought a second or retirement home yet, this is an opportunity of a lifetime. Prices upstate are now at levels not found for 15-20 years. We are at a point in time when the price of real estate in these locations reflects not only a much lower cost than just a few years ago but also reflect a 20% to 30% discount on the replacement cost (actual cost of purchasing land, adding infrastructures and building a house.) As with all previous recessions, we won’t know it’s over until we have already gone into the next growth cycle and prices are back up. With most towns in upstate upping their subdivision and construction permitting standards this cost of new construction is bound to increase, making an existing home more valuable. If you haven’t purchased your getaway home yet, now is the time to get off the fence and jump.
How to be GREEN, living in the Country
Whether you live in the county or just suburbia, the lifestyle leads to some very unhealthy, polluting living. From cutting the grass to trimming trees or just blowing leaves you are more likely going to be using both four cycle and two cycle engines. We can use four cycle engines more efficiently and two cycle engine are as dirty as it gets. We need to turn that around and clean up our act. Due to the fact that two cycle engines mix oil and gas prior to burning, the use of these engines lead to both a waste of fuel (almost 40% of the fuel is not burned) as well as as much pollution per hour of usage as the largest gas guzzling SUV’s. The good news is that most of this pollution is controllable.
To start with, we can use environmentally safe engine oil in our four cycle engines (like lawn mowers or lawn tractors). Developed by Green Earth Technologies® we now can switch from petroleum based motor oil to G-Oil® an environmentally safe non-petroleum substitute. As is the case with most energy savings issues, we can reduce both pollution and fuel savings by making two lifestyle changes. The first is mowing less often and/or mowing less areas around our homes. I have a 5 acre yard but for years I only mow 1 of the 5 acres when necessary, not regularly (just because it’s Sunday doesn’t mean I have to cut the grass.) Due to the deer tick problem up here in Greene county I do cut the other 4 acres once a month. If you really want to help, switch to G-Oil® for your lawn mower and/or lawn tractor as well as your car’s oil changes. Follow this link to see all of the oil change locations in both upstate New York as well as the entire New York Metropolitan area. These locations also sell G-Oil® for the do-it-yourselfer's.
Even more polluting than mowers and tractors are the dirty two cycle engine string trimmers, leaf blowers and chainsaws that have become part of our life. For this problem I have two solutions. The first is switching from standard two cycle engine oil to 2 Cycle G-Oil, also manufactured by Green Earth Technologies®. If you are handy, in addition to switching oils you can save huge amounts of fuel by making your regular 2 cycle engine into a Direct Injection engine. (A retrofit kit can be purchased at Envirfit.org.)
Like all families, some of us are a bit more environmentally aware than our partners or family members. In my family I have to deal with a wonderful wife who is also a bit OCD. (The kids and I used to torture her by just moving things in the house by a few inches and sitting back to watch her.) Well one of “her things” is a certain look of our front yard. I must string trim weekly and include killing all weeds growing on our driveway and pathways. I’ve already switched to 2 Cycle G-Oil in my string trimmer. As is typical to most environmental challenges the solution is both less expensive and very easy. There are few products worse than the most popular herbicide RoundOut®. The good news is that I can both save you money and make your home environment less toxic. For the past 15 years I have been using a home brew of 1 gallon white vinegar and a cap-full of any citrus based degreaser (which is non-toxic and biodegradable) in a pump sprayer to kill any of the weeds that grow along my driveway and other yard paths. It works within a day and does just as good a job as toxic chemicals in a non-toxic biodegradable way.
While you are changing the way you treat your yard, why not make as many indoor changes as you have made outdoors. While most of the typical cleaning products manufacturers now have “green” products, why not buy wholesale from a NYC company American Cleaning Solutions which is local (Brooklyn, NY), doesn’t sell the bad stuff as well as green products (like the Clorox company) and sells concentrates that are both economical and environmentally safe. Over 10 years ago I purchased a gallon each of GC 55 GLASS & WINDOW CLEANER,MP 11 MULTI-PURPOSE CLEANER (which cleans floors, walls, chrome, stainless steel, table tops, vinyl, sealed wood and many other surfaces not harmed by water) and SAFE 2 CLEAN PEROXIDE CLEANER(for cleaning toilets). I have yet to use more than ½ of any of them as they each make between 32 and 64 gallons of products. Let me repeat, it has been 10 years since I have been using these products and assume they will last another 10 years. The only unfortunate thing is that as the company sells wholesale directly to janitorial supply companies so if you want their products you must call them at 888-929-7587 to order them. They also make a number of other green products so it is definitely worth checking out their website.
Lastly, with the winter coming on we can all do the earth a favor by not using non-environmental salt melting agents. While there is no perfect melting solution, the best choices are any of the acetates. These can be purchased at any good hardware stores. If you can’t find it nearby, it can be purchased in bulk at Meltsnow.com.. That’s it for now. Have a green winter.
24 Tips for Finding a Great (Caretaker, Handyman, etc.) in Upstate New York
I moved from Manhattan to my home in East Durham, New York, full time in 1986, and since then I’ve made a living primarily as a Realtor with an office in Cairo, New York. The question that downstate buyers ask most often is where to find a qualified caretaker of some sort: a handyman, property manager, mover or caretaker, or someone to do snow removal or lawn maintenance.
If you need all of those things, I suggest going with a professional property manager. But if you’re looking for something less, we need to talk. The first step is always to understand that the goal is not a simple one. These helpers come in every skill level and vary from amateur to professional and everything in between. Will they be paid by check or in cash? Will it be a one time thing, a seasonal hire or a true employee (part time or full time)? Lastly, just how rural is the location? Some towns are so small that it would be impossible to satisfy all those needs with anything other than professional management company, or multiple people.
I’m going to assume that what you need is a basic handyman (basic plumbing, electrical, painting, drywall and landscaping skills.) Here in Greene County (the surrounding counties would be slightly higher), pricing for a person calling themselves a handyman will vary from $10/hour to as much as $35/hour. The number is really irrelevant. Why? Because (and here is the most important tip you’ll get) the price per hour is not as important as:
1. What is the job worth?
2. How long does the handyman think it will take to complete the job and is that how long it really took?
3. How close is the estimate to the final price?
4. Do you trust it was done correctly (some stuff is behind the walls)?
5. Does the quality of the work fairly represent the quality stated and desired (sometimes just a tweak is needed)? Are you getting it?
2. How long does the handyman think it will take to complete the job and is that how long it really took?
3. How close is the estimate to the final price?
4. Do you trust it was done correctly (some stuff is behind the walls)?
5. Does the quality of the work fairly represent the quality stated and desired (sometimes just a tweak is needed)? Are you getting it?
Forget about dollar per hour prices. Forget about what you are used to. Start to understand that things are done differently upstate and with less skilled people when you interview (2nd tip, never hire anyone you haven’t met and talked to) the best approach is to have a list of tasks or jobs ready to go and ask the handyman how long he/she thinks it should take and estimate what that would cost. (This is actually a test. I have tried handymen who always underestimate either time, scope of work or both.) Again, if they start with “I have no idea how long that will take but I only charge $10/hour,” you have the wrong person. Am I being completely clear?This interview is the most important part of the hire.
The biggest complaints I hear from clients have to do with poor communication. Sometimes it may be the handyman but many times it is the client themselves. When estimating a job, the scope of work should be clearly stated. “I want you to paint the master bedroom,” is not a clear scope of job. You must be specific:
1. All walls should be cleaned, all holes sparkled and sanded and then primed with (fill in the blank) paint.
2. You need an estimate of amount of primer and paint that will be needed. (Almost all paint has a 300 square foot coverage. If 3 or more gallons are needed, it might make sense to purchase the paint in a 5 gallon bucket rather than by the gallon.
3. The specifics of the paint should be specific as to brand of paint, color and finish (matte, eggshell, semi-gloss, gloss, etc.)
4. All work should be done on a cloth drop cloth. (If you are not this specific you will be paying for clean up time or worse.)
5. Finish coat specifics should be as specific as the prep work for the primer.
6. The handyman should be able to break up the estimate into materials and labor. (Another test. The list of materials should not include brushes and rollers. These are tools that should be owned by the handyman. Roller pads are only used once so they may be on the list. If brushes and rollers are included it should be stated that they would become your property when the job is done.) H
2. You need an estimate of amount of primer and paint that will be needed. (Almost all paint has a 300 square foot coverage. If 3 or more gallons are needed, it might make sense to purchase the paint in a 5 gallon bucket rather than by the gallon.
3. The specifics of the paint should be specific as to brand of paint, color and finish (matte, eggshell, semi-gloss, gloss, etc.)
4. All work should be done on a cloth drop cloth. (If you are not this specific you will be paying for clean up time or worse.)
5. Finish coat specifics should be as specific as the prep work for the primer.
6. The handyman should be able to break up the estimate into materials and labor. (Another test. The list of materials should not include brushes and rollers. These are tools that should be owned by the handyman. Roller pads are only used once so they may be on the list. If brushes and rollers are included it should be stated that they would become your property when the job is done.) H
opefully just by looking at the above you are understanding what your job is. This example should be transferable to any job you have. If you are a detail person this will come naturally (although if you get too compulsive you will pay for it.) If you are not you will need to understand and take responsibility for setting the scope. Below is a list of tips that are general but very important.
- If it’s too good to be true, it probably is.
- What methods of communication does the handyman prefer. (If one of them is not instantaneous, like texting or cell phone even don’t bother.)
- Ask for 3 client references. (This is not the same as the next suggestion.)
- Ask for the last 3 jobs he/she finished. Ask when they were completed and the contact number for those clients. (If the last completed job was 3 months ago this might not be the right handyman.)
- Does he/she have insurance. (If they don’t, which is very likely, you might want to contact your insurance carrier to make sure any damage is covered by your policy.)
- How far away does he/she live. (Be aware that if it’s over 30 minutes you will most likely be charged travel time. If the job includes being your eyes and ears while you are gone it’s not likely that they will be available for emergencies. I set a personal travel time of 20 minutes for anyone I hire that would handle emergencies.)
- Ask what stores does he/she has accounts with. You do not want to have to set up an account at a vendor for their use. This can become a real potential for abuse.
- Give jobs/tasks one at a time until you are sure that you have found the right person. There are handymen that might start out fine but may start to take advantage as time goes on. I always recommend that no matter how long someone works for you it’s part of your job to create that scope of work list. You may let go of the need for estimates if you’ve grow to trust him/her, but the scope is your job.
The rest of my suggestions are more optional. I prefer to write checks to giving cash. I always try and get any other contractor or specialist from my main contact (my handyman) but while I may ask for referrals I also ask other people I come into contact with who they might suggest. The smaller the town, the more you are likely to get feedback about your hire from neighbors and others. If you don’t really know these people very well you should take each comment (gossip) with a grain of salt. Little towns can be very little. That’s it for now.
The Black Swan
If you live on the east coast you just learned how much luck or fate has to do with your life. A week ago we were told about a storm that was going to hit the east coast from Florida to Maine, maybe. The maybe had to do with the various weather models that were all possible. I‘m not a psychologist but I assume that the study of how people behave when they are faced with a potential crisis, not a known crisis would be exceedingly interesting.
I had just returned from a trip to Florida to see my family and started the process of storm preparation. As the computer models began to create a consensus of similar routes the potential for a terrible storm increased. A year ago we (in New York’s Mid Hudson Valley) had what was called the “storm of the century” with Hurricane Irene and for many of us a storm bigger and badder seems both impossible and inevitable. I still can remember watching the pumps in my basement barely keep up water flow. Now we're now seeing predictions of a much worse storm. One Thousand miles in diameter was the size of Sandy.
Having business in western New York I still pass through towns like Prattsville that are all but gone. Was it possible that our hundred year storm was going to be an annual thing? This new monster had hundred mile an hour winds and I was more fearful of those winds then even the expected high rainfall amounts. For the first time ever I decided that my usual preparedness was not enough. I took anything that could become a projectile and put it away. I tripled the tie downs on my greenhouses and upped the inflation pressure in hopes that when Sandy hit, I was ready. Lastly, I got my son to help me put up huge sheets of hard corrugated plastic on my large windows.
Then we hunkered down. We had an emergency generator for the expected power loss and had unplugged the unnecessary appliances. The storm was to hit at 8 PM. The photos and videos of the devastation in Virginia were morphing into the same but worse for the Jersey shore. OC (as we called it in Philly), or Ocean City was underwater. Scenes of roof rescues in seaside New Jersey were looped on The Weather Channel, along with those ridiculous pictures of weather reporters standing in knee deep water in Battery Park and parts of Brooklyn.
By 7 PM we could see the computer models changed to predict the the storm going further west, not north and up New York. By 8:30 PM we still hadn't lost power and although the winds were 25-30 MPH, it was clear that we had lucked out. The rain was much lighter than expected. The water was coming in my basement in a small stream, not an overwhelming flow. We were not going to have a bad day. Instead we would begin the survivors guilt that comes with “getting away with one.”
All I could think about at that moment was a book I had read years ago called The Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb. The book was one of the most important in my life. A Black Swan is described as “an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences.” It was written primarily about economics, but deals with any improbable event and how these events changed all of our lives, either in a positive or negative way. Almost by definition giant weather events are classic black swans. As I sat holding my wife I knew that we had just, by luck or by chance, been on the positive side of a black swan. As the pictures and video’s continue to come in and are splashed across our TV screens we should feel empathy for the hundreds of thousands whose life has changed forever, on the negative side. The only known fact is that there will be more black swans in our lives.
TO HELP WITH HURRICANE SANDY RELIEF, CLICK HERE.
I had just returned from a trip to Florida to see my family and started the process of storm preparation. As the computer models began to create a consensus of similar routes the potential for a terrible storm increased. A year ago we (in New York’s Mid Hudson Valley) had what was called the “storm of the century” with Hurricane Irene and for many of us a storm bigger and badder seems both impossible and inevitable. I still can remember watching the pumps in my basement barely keep up water flow. Now we're now seeing predictions of a much worse storm. One Thousand miles in diameter was the size of Sandy.
Having business in western New York I still pass through towns like Prattsville that are all but gone. Was it possible that our hundred year storm was going to be an annual thing? This new monster had hundred mile an hour winds and I was more fearful of those winds then even the expected high rainfall amounts. For the first time ever I decided that my usual preparedness was not enough. I took anything that could become a projectile and put it away. I tripled the tie downs on my greenhouses and upped the inflation pressure in hopes that when Sandy hit, I was ready. Lastly, I got my son to help me put up huge sheets of hard corrugated plastic on my large windows.
Then we hunkered down. We had an emergency generator for the expected power loss and had unplugged the unnecessary appliances. The storm was to hit at 8 PM. The photos and videos of the devastation in Virginia were morphing into the same but worse for the Jersey shore. OC (as we called it in Philly), or Ocean City was underwater. Scenes of roof rescues in seaside New Jersey were looped on The Weather Channel, along with those ridiculous pictures of weather reporters standing in knee deep water in Battery Park and parts of Brooklyn.
By 7 PM we could see the computer models changed to predict the the storm going further west, not north and up New York. By 8:30 PM we still hadn't lost power and although the winds were 25-30 MPH, it was clear that we had lucked out. The rain was much lighter than expected. The water was coming in my basement in a small stream, not an overwhelming flow. We were not going to have a bad day. Instead we would begin the survivors guilt that comes with “getting away with one.”
All I could think about at that moment was a book I had read years ago called The Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb. The book was one of the most important in my life. A Black Swan is described as “an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences.” It was written primarily about economics, but deals with any improbable event and how these events changed all of our lives, either in a positive or negative way. Almost by definition giant weather events are classic black swans. As I sat holding my wife I knew that we had just, by luck or by chance, been on the positive side of a black swan. As the pictures and video’s continue to come in and are splashed across our TV screens we should feel empathy for the hundreds of thousands whose life has changed forever, on the negative side. The only known fact is that there will be more black swans in our lives.
TO HELP WITH HURRICANE SANDY RELIEF, CLICK HERE.
Why California Proposition 37 is Important to You! (or why Corporations grow crap while family farmers grow crops)
No matter what state you live in, California’s Proposition 37 should be important to you. If you don’t know what that is let me explain. ( A full legal explanation is HERE). California has always been a leader in everything from energy to ecology. This Prop (the word is going to come up a zillion times in this post so I will be abbreviating from here on in) is backing a bill to require all foods containing Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO’s) as such. It is simply a labeling requirement. The proposition does not in anyway make the sale of these products illegal or restricted. There are currently 61 other countries that require labeling of genetically engineered products. The bill even has exemptions for retail sales made in restaurants. (One would think companies like Pepsi & Coke would support this prop but both are as much a part of the opposition as Monsanto, DuPont, BASF and Dow. See full list in the next paragraph.)
Seems harmless enough. After all, it is simply informing consumers of what is in a product so why is the current food (and chemical) industries spending $35,000,000 to defeat this measure? (For a full list of all those funding both sides of this proposition click HERE.) The reason is simple. As proven in the current list of countries which require labeling, when consumers are given the choice between products that have GMO’s and those that don’t have GMO’s, consumers overwhelmingly choose those with no or limited amounts of GMO’s. Additionally, while the main crops currently are corn and soybeans, the list of crops is growing daily.
What is essential to understand about the importance of this issue for non Californians is that this prop is really about much more than labeling. This prop is also about the creation of big chemical companies becoming two sides of the food industry. Currently the most popular weed killer is Monsanto’s Round-Out® pesticide. Unfortunately Round-Out® kills everything it is sprayed on. That is, until now. These chemical companies are now in the food production business, patenting Round-Out® resistant seeds and plants. Imagine that. They create poisons and then crops that resist those poisons. Just when the public is asking for less pesticides and herbicides on their food crops (the sale of natural and organic foods are increasing exponentially) these companies are creating more crops that resist the poisons that they create.
While Round-Out® is the most popular crop poison, all of the major chemical companies are getting into this closed circle of poisons and crops that resist these poisons. While Monsanto donated over $7,000,000 to the fight, DuPont has donated almost $5,000,000 to the effort. (Interestingly, DuPont has patented their own version of both the poison and the antidote.) Doesn't this concept bother you even a little bit? Remember, all these crops are patented so farmers will have no choice but to purchase seeds from them. What drives me crazy is that these are the same companies that support politicians that preach “family values.” Is there any greater family value then not poisoning our children?
We have already lost ? of our planets topsoil, we can’t afford to poison what’s left. Since this prop is only in California, most of us are not yet involved in what has been called the new food war. It’s not just about poisons, it’s about patents and it’s being sold the same way the chemical companies sold farmers on fertilizers. The world population is growing and this “is the only way we can feed the world.” Just as we learned the myth of chemical fertilizers we will learn the myth of this world solution to poverty and hunger. Standard farming involves crops that produce seeds that can be replanted. The problem with that is farmers purchase less seeds, producing less profits for seed companies. Farmers planting GMO seeds are sued for patent infringement. So much for solving poverty and hunger. America has abundant food. India, not so. Physicist Vandana Shiva says "Native seed is going through a holocaust as corporations are controlling seed supply. The future of our world depends on how we steward our land, soil, water, and seeds, and pass them on to future generations." If you say you care about the kids and the future, check out Dirt! The Movie. Then make up your mind and get involved.
Seems harmless enough. After all, it is simply informing consumers of what is in a product so why is the current food (and chemical) industries spending $35,000,000 to defeat this measure? (For a full list of all those funding both sides of this proposition click HERE.) The reason is simple. As proven in the current list of countries which require labeling, when consumers are given the choice between products that have GMO’s and those that don’t have GMO’s, consumers overwhelmingly choose those with no or limited amounts of GMO’s. Additionally, while the main crops currently are corn and soybeans, the list of crops is growing daily.
What is essential to understand about the importance of this issue for non Californians is that this prop is really about much more than labeling. This prop is also about the creation of big chemical companies becoming two sides of the food industry. Currently the most popular weed killer is Monsanto’s Round-Out® pesticide. Unfortunately Round-Out® kills everything it is sprayed on. That is, until now. These chemical companies are now in the food production business, patenting Round-Out® resistant seeds and plants. Imagine that. They create poisons and then crops that resist those poisons. Just when the public is asking for less pesticides and herbicides on their food crops (the sale of natural and organic foods are increasing exponentially) these companies are creating more crops that resist the poisons that they create.
While Round-Out® is the most popular crop poison, all of the major chemical companies are getting into this closed circle of poisons and crops that resist these poisons. While Monsanto donated over $7,000,000 to the fight, DuPont has donated almost $5,000,000 to the effort. (Interestingly, DuPont has patented their own version of both the poison and the antidote.) Doesn't this concept bother you even a little bit? Remember, all these crops are patented so farmers will have no choice but to purchase seeds from them. What drives me crazy is that these are the same companies that support politicians that preach “family values.” Is there any greater family value then not poisoning our children?
We have already lost ? of our planets topsoil, we can’t afford to poison what’s left. Since this prop is only in California, most of us are not yet involved in what has been called the new food war. It’s not just about poisons, it’s about patents and it’s being sold the same way the chemical companies sold farmers on fertilizers. The world population is growing and this “is the only way we can feed the world.” Just as we learned the myth of chemical fertilizers we will learn the myth of this world solution to poverty and hunger. Standard farming involves crops that produce seeds that can be replanted. The problem with that is farmers purchase less seeds, producing less profits for seed companies. Farmers planting GMO seeds are sued for patent infringement. So much for solving poverty and hunger. America has abundant food. India, not so. Physicist Vandana Shiva says "Native seed is going through a holocaust as corporations are controlling seed supply. The future of our world depends on how we steward our land, soil, water, and seeds, and pass them on to future generations." If you say you care about the kids and the future, check out Dirt! The Movie. Then make up your mind and get involved.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)