Let me start out by stating that I live in upstate New York and as is typical here, I own a gun. My son owns two and will probably purchase a third this year. Here in rural New York I assume most people own a gun. Most hunt, but many also own guns as a hobby and as a home protection device. As a non-NRA member I always read first and judge later. I am a non-NRA member because I don’t want to belong to an organization that is part of the problem and not the solution.
When President Obama was elected the first “warnings” from the NRA was “that they are going to take away our guns.” Never happened but did pump up the sale of guns and memberships to the NRA. Understand, the more the NRA can scare you, the more money they make. It’s an economic thing. When Governor Cuomo signed the new New York Gun Law gun sales throughout the country skyrocketed. They want to keep you scared. Scared=Money.
My guess is is that none of those gun purchaser’s read the law. (I sometimes think many couldn’t have read anything). At the end of this post is a elongated summary of that new law, but the short form is simple. It redefines what an assault rifle is and makes the sale and ownership of such weapons illegal. It severely restricts the mentally ill from owning all guns and it requires all gun owners have a background check and to register their guns. (It also requires a background check on all ammunition purchasers).
Currently in New York if you drive a car you are required to register your car and have it inspected. All roads have a speed limit. Everyone understands the logic of these laws. Cars can and do kill. They are dangerous. If your child was killed by a car you might want to add more protective laws to protect other children (like DUI or DWI laws).
You can not yell “Fire” in a theater. It is an exception to the First Amendment. A logical one. No one questions it but if you believe that the second amendment is different, you should stop reading this post now. We are simply not on the same page. If you believe that anyone should have the right to own any kind of gun, no matter how dangerous, you simply don’t understand what “We the People” mean. We give up some rights for the protection and benefit of us all.
Now that the Tea Partiers (or any other’s who believe that there should be no restrictions on anything) have clicked away I can continue with the importance of reading the actual law. If you actually read the law (which can be found HERE, with a summary at the end of this post) you will find little to be frightened of. In fact, the logic of each point will hopefully make New York safer and reduce crime.
Let’s look at each summarized bullet point;
1. The NY Safe Act of 2013 bans semi-automatic rifles, shotguns and pistols purchased after Jan. 15, 2013 that have one prohibited feature – such as a pistol grip, a folding stock or a flash suppressor. This is the state’s new definition of an assault weapon. The ban does not cover pistol grip shotguns. Is there anyone who doesn’t understand that these features are only for killing cops? No one needs a rifle that folds up or suppresses the shooting flash.
2. For semi-automatic guns bought before Jan. 15, 2013 owners must be register with the New York State Police by April 15, 2014. We need to register our cars. We need to register our guns. (Are those finding a problem with registration protesting auto registration)?
3. The registration will trigger a background check through New York’s National Instant Criminal Background Check system. Problem with that?
4. If you own a gun that fits the new law and do not want to register it you have a year to sell your semi-automatic to an out-of-state dealer. After a year, you can only transfer it to spouse, domestic partner or a child. Again, Am I crazy or does this just seem logical.
5. Exemptions exist for relics and curio weapons that may meet the new definition of an assault weapon. Too liberal?
6. You have a year to get rid of any magazines that can hold more than 10 rounds (typically the 30-round magazines grandfathered in under the 1994 state law that previously defined assault weapons and gun restrictions). Under the new law, you can still use 10-round magazines, though legally you can only load a maximum of seven bullets at a time. I’m sure it’s fun to shoot off 30 rounds but this is where we have to sacrifice a little for the common good.
7. Handgun owners must have a pistol permit and re-certify the information in the permit to the New York State Police every five years. The information includes address, date of birth, firearm descriptions and other personal information. Local officials will still hold the authority to decide who gets a pistol permit. Let’s face it. Don’t we all want to know who owns what guns and these are the weapons most used in crimes. Is it too much to have accurate information about the owner?
8. The law required background checks now for ammunition sales through New York’s NICS.
9. All online sales must go through a dealer with a federal firearms license who also is required to do a background check on ammo sales. One more place to separate the good guys from the bad guys.
10. You can sell a gun at a garage sale or another type of private sale so long as the buyer passes a background check before the transaction takes place. The buyer is now required to get NICS clearance for gun transactions. The seller must keep the paperwork and can charge $10 to the buyer for the task. Failure to obtain the background check is a misdemeanor. The background check for private sales does not apply to transfers among spouses, domestic partners and children. Again, this is required for car sales, shouldn't it be required for gun sales?
11. You must secure guns in your home if you live with a convicted felon, someone with mental health issue or someone under an order of protection. Failure to do so is a misdemeanor. Sorry but how many lives will this save.
12. Gun ownership is restrictioned for mental health patients and expands Kendra’s Law, a policy that allows a judge to order treatment for people who typically have very severe mental health problems, such as schizophrenia. The changes expand the court-ordered treatment plan from six months to a year. The law now requires an evaluation of state prisoners who exhibit behavioral problems at the end of their imprisonment to see if they meet the criteria for Kendra’s Law. And the law extends the original sunset in Kendra’s Law from June 30, 2015 to June 30, 2017.
The law requires mental health providers to report patients who pose a serious risk to self or others to local county mental health officials. The county then can report the concerns to the state’s Division of Criminal Justice Services. DCJS then has the authority to suspend any pistol permit and can require the person to surrender all firearms to law enforcement.
The different facets of the law allow DCJS and the Office of Mental Health to “disqualify” mentally ill people from having a pistol permit or possessing firearms. The state also intends to add a disqualifying notification, without including detailed health information, into the background check database to stop gun sales. Disqualified people can petition the commissioner of mental health for a reversal of the designation. Can anyone have a problem with this?
13. There are a host of harsher penalties for those who break the laws when it comes to illegal gun buys, using guns in a crime, brandishing a gun on school grounds, or shooting a child or first responder. Here’s a summary:
*Makes killing a first responder responding to an emergency a first-degree murder charge.
*Creates a mandatory five-year minimum prison sentence for anyone who uses a loaded firearm during a drug sale or violent felony.
*Creates a mandatory three-and-a-half year minimum prison sentence for using an unloaded gun during any drug sale or violent felony.
*Increases penalties for “straw purchasers,” people who can easily pass a background check who buy guns for others. The crime goes from a misdemeanor to a Class D felony.
*Makes it a felony to possess a gun on school grounds or a school bus.
*Ups punishment for people, often gang members, who use community or shared guns to commit crimes. Can anyone have a problem with this?
That’s it. No matter what you heard. This is the law. Once again, don’t believe me. The actually legislation is HERE. No one is coming for your guns. Don’t believe me, would you believe Bill O’Reilly? Bill O’Reilly surprised everyone by saying on many shows that the “only way to get the guns out of the hands of the criminals is to federalize gun registration”. His concept is simple. Register guns and make having one a federal crime with a 10 year mandatory sentence. He too put it in terms of registering a car.
Before you go crazy about the new New York Gun Law, read it and understand that we may only have this one chance. Once we have some distance from all these school shootings the tide will subside. Its now or never. Now that it’s done in New York we have a big lab. I believe if we look back in New York we will find that the registration requirement will turn this tide.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Monday, February 4, 2013
The Legacy of Liberalism or Why Paint Don’t Stink
While I earn the bulk of my income from owning a retail real estate firm in Cairo, New York, I also have invested in multifamily apartments as my main retirement income investments. As the real estate market has come back from the collapse of prices in 2008, it still has not come back anywhere like the stock market has (now close to a 5 year high). Construction is up, new housing starts are up, and as I stated in my last post I’m optimistic about the economy. Having more free time has allowed me to do some things that I usually don’t get to do (and maybe shouldn’t). One of my winter goals was to paint the very large parlor floor entrance and three story hallways in my ten unit historic landmark located on Willett Street in Albany, New York. The key here is historic.
While the property is located on what I consider the most desirable location in Albany, most of my fellow landlords have completely renovated their apartments. For financial reasons I can’t compete with that. I don’t have the capital in this marketplace. In order to compete I’ve had to accept a discounted rent roll. In my desire to raise the rent roll I have been slowly making at least one improvement to at least 20% of the apartments each year. In addition I have tried to be a very hands on landlord. As any Realtor will tell you, you (or your building or apartment) only get to make great first impression once. That’s what I’m going for. A new first impression.
For those who have read my November 30th post of last year, you know that I’m a Green Landlord. Add the need to renovate and paint in keeping with the historic color palette of 1878, and the task becomes more difficult than expected. My last big issue became the fact that all of my research on historic paint colors are about exterior colors. There is no shortage of websites from paint companies as well as other sources to find appropriate colors. Interior colors is a whole other thing. After hours days of research I finally found that as I looked into paint manufacturing I was able to find the historic colors I needed.
In my case, the hardest problem to solve after finding the “right” colors was how to deal with the need to find the right primer, one that would not take off or “bubble” the existing wall paper when priming. Remember, I needed the paint to be both low or no VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds). All of my research suggested that no latex primer would work. The suggestions were to use either oil based or alkyd based primers. If you have ever used these types of paints you know that they really “stink.” My building, with high income tenants simply would not be very happy coming home to hallways that smell like chemicals. As we have become more and more litigious as a society, I worry about having a tenant get the flu and blame me, as the landlord. This is not beyond belief. (Remember the woman getting a million dollar settlement from McDonalds for a coffee that she spilled on her lap because she claimed it was “too hot.”)
The solution turned out to be simpler than I thought. After having no luck finding a primer that was both environmentally friendly and odorless I typed “odorless oil based primer” into Google and surprisingly multiple primers came up. I had never heard of any oil based paint that was “odorless,” but just adding that word in the search made all the difference in the world. I settled on Kilz Odorless Primer and it has worked out fantastically. I was able to tint it so I was able to one coat the finish paint. My tenants were thrilled that they could watch me paint and no one could smell anything.
You’ve got to be wondering “what does any of this have to do with liberalism.” Here, your age might help. As I grew up when all paint was oil based a smelled like the toxic chemicals it was made of, this odorless, low VOC paint is a miracle of evolution. Even if you’re younger you grew up with the latex version of the poisonous, smelly paints (the smell are the VOC’s). Now, for the first time in history you can paint with 99.9% toxin free paint. I should mention it’s not just about paint. There is now low VOC or VOC free glues and adhesives. In fact half of the building supplies are now either completely safe or much safer than they have ever been. This is not by accident. This is the payoff of 25 years of environmental progress.
Now is the time for the liberal left to join the fiscally conservative right to help save both the planet and our pocket books. For all those conservatives who have considered these environmental laws as government interference, you are viewing this issue from the incorrect perspective. All those toxins caused health issues that we all pay for. If keeping health costs down is desirable, join the fiscally conservative side of this issue. The more safe products we make, the healthier our lakes, rivers and streams will be, the healthier we will be, the lower our health care costs will be. This basic concept is true of every environmental law we have passed from removing the lead in gasoline to getting rid of the CFC’s in refrigeration. When both were legislated, the warning from the polluters were that these laws would make these products too expensive. These warning have been going on for over 25 years and have never proven to be true.
We all agree that we can’t go on spending the way we do. Let’s look for areas where the data shows that we have solutions that should work for both sides. I would challenge anyone to show me an example of any environmental law that either cost too much and closed a business that didn’t have a health benefit that offset the cost. Now is the time to close the budget gaps by investing in cleaner products that reduce health costs. It just makes cents.
While the property is located on what I consider the most desirable location in Albany, most of my fellow landlords have completely renovated their apartments. For financial reasons I can’t compete with that. I don’t have the capital in this marketplace. In order to compete I’ve had to accept a discounted rent roll. In my desire to raise the rent roll I have been slowly making at least one improvement to at least 20% of the apartments each year. In addition I have tried to be a very hands on landlord. As any Realtor will tell you, you (or your building or apartment) only get to make great first impression once. That’s what I’m going for. A new first impression.
For those who have read my November 30th post of last year, you know that I’m a Green Landlord. Add the need to renovate and paint in keeping with the historic color palette of 1878, and the task becomes more difficult than expected. My last big issue became the fact that all of my research on historic paint colors are about exterior colors. There is no shortage of websites from paint companies as well as other sources to find appropriate colors. Interior colors is a whole other thing. After hours days of research I finally found that as I looked into paint manufacturing I was able to find the historic colors I needed.
In my case, the hardest problem to solve after finding the “right” colors was how to deal with the need to find the right primer, one that would not take off or “bubble” the existing wall paper when priming. Remember, I needed the paint to be both low or no VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds). All of my research suggested that no latex primer would work. The suggestions were to use either oil based or alkyd based primers. If you have ever used these types of paints you know that they really “stink.” My building, with high income tenants simply would not be very happy coming home to hallways that smell like chemicals. As we have become more and more litigious as a society, I worry about having a tenant get the flu and blame me, as the landlord. This is not beyond belief. (Remember the woman getting a million dollar settlement from McDonalds for a coffee that she spilled on her lap because she claimed it was “too hot.”)
The solution turned out to be simpler than I thought. After having no luck finding a primer that was both environmentally friendly and odorless I typed “odorless oil based primer” into Google and surprisingly multiple primers came up. I had never heard of any oil based paint that was “odorless,” but just adding that word in the search made all the difference in the world. I settled on Kilz Odorless Primer and it has worked out fantastically. I was able to tint it so I was able to one coat the finish paint. My tenants were thrilled that they could watch me paint and no one could smell anything.
You’ve got to be wondering “what does any of this have to do with liberalism.” Here, your age might help. As I grew up when all paint was oil based a smelled like the toxic chemicals it was made of, this odorless, low VOC paint is a miracle of evolution. Even if you’re younger you grew up with the latex version of the poisonous, smelly paints (the smell are the VOC’s). Now, for the first time in history you can paint with 99.9% toxin free paint. I should mention it’s not just about paint. There is now low VOC or VOC free glues and adhesives. In fact half of the building supplies are now either completely safe or much safer than they have ever been. This is not by accident. This is the payoff of 25 years of environmental progress.
Now is the time for the liberal left to join the fiscally conservative right to help save both the planet and our pocket books. For all those conservatives who have considered these environmental laws as government interference, you are viewing this issue from the incorrect perspective. All those toxins caused health issues that we all pay for. If keeping health costs down is desirable, join the fiscally conservative side of this issue. The more safe products we make, the healthier our lakes, rivers and streams will be, the healthier we will be, the lower our health care costs will be. This basic concept is true of every environmental law we have passed from removing the lead in gasoline to getting rid of the CFC’s in refrigeration. When both were legislated, the warning from the polluters were that these laws would make these products too expensive. These warning have been going on for over 25 years and have never proven to be true.
We all agree that we can’t go on spending the way we do. Let’s look for areas where the data shows that we have solutions that should work for both sides. I would challenge anyone to show me an example of any environmental law that either cost too much and closed a business that didn’t have a health benefit that offset the cost. Now is the time to close the budget gaps by investing in cleaner products that reduce health costs. It just makes cents.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Is Now The Time To Buy Your New Home?
If you've read my past few posts you might think I’m in a bit of a pessimist. You couldn't be more wrong. I think that we will look back at 2013 as “the turnaround” year we have all been waiting for. Yes, I know about the Fiscal Cliff, the Debt Limit and all the rest but when you look at the job numbers, the stock market and the money sitting on the sideline waiting for a place to park it’s hard to imagine that the economy is not ready to really move forward at a faster pace this year. Construction jobs are up and with the spring coming and at least 50 billion dollars ready to rebuild the northeast this may be the tipping point. Add to that the fact that with mortgage rates as low as they are and the market betting that they will go up, making those who have been waiting to now jump into the market combined with an increase in sales prices in most places now is the time to buy.
One of the most common effects of the business cycle is that we tend to be in the recovery stage long before anyone realizes it. Although most economists believe we are in recovery, all agree it’s been very anemic. Now we can see that the job market has expanded and although the unemployment rate has remained in the 7.7%-7.8% range for a few months the number of jobs created has continued to go up and those jobs are beginning to show up where we need them, in construction.
As of November 2012 we can see that the number of homes for sale dropped by almost 20% from the same time the year before and the number of pending sales increasing each year since 2010, exactly the trend needed to end this recession. The combination of less inventory, more home sales, the lowest mortgage rate in years and an increase in construction jobs will lead to a great 2013.
While the banking system has gone through a number of regulatory corrections and lending requirements have become more stringent I have no doubt that all those buyers who have been waiting will find, by mid 2013 that the prices have gone up. Once those sales have become statistics, the train will get moving faster. Right now existing home prices are still lower than the cost of new construction and as less inventory is available, new home sales will tell the story.
As a member of the National Association of Home Builders I can tell you that most builders understand that the next decade of buyers will be looking for a smaller (1700-2200 square feet), more energy efficient home. Once these new homes have become the norm the value of the larger, older homes will fill out the market and make many more options available to purchasers. With more cash down the markets will be more stable than in the past and you will know I am correct in this optimism when banks again get more aggressive by the end of the year.
If you are not in the market to buy, sit back and watch, but if you have been thinking have we hit the bottom, the answer is YES. Jump in now. A year from today you will be bragging about what you paid for your new home. Below is a graph showing today's sales prices are almost exactly back where they were in 2005. They won’t be here very long. Take advantage.
One of the most common effects of the business cycle is that we tend to be in the recovery stage long before anyone realizes it. Although most economists believe we are in recovery, all agree it’s been very anemic. Now we can see that the job market has expanded and although the unemployment rate has remained in the 7.7%-7.8% range for a few months the number of jobs created has continued to go up and those jobs are beginning to show up where we need them, in construction.
As of November 2012 we can see that the number of homes for sale dropped by almost 20% from the same time the year before and the number of pending sales increasing each year since 2010, exactly the trend needed to end this recession. The combination of less inventory, more home sales, the lowest mortgage rate in years and an increase in construction jobs will lead to a great 2013.
While the banking system has gone through a number of regulatory corrections and lending requirements have become more stringent I have no doubt that all those buyers who have been waiting will find, by mid 2013 that the prices have gone up. Once those sales have become statistics, the train will get moving faster. Right now existing home prices are still lower than the cost of new construction and as less inventory is available, new home sales will tell the story.
As a member of the National Association of Home Builders I can tell you that most builders understand that the next decade of buyers will be looking for a smaller (1700-2200 square feet), more energy efficient home. Once these new homes have become the norm the value of the larger, older homes will fill out the market and make many more options available to purchasers. With more cash down the markets will be more stable than in the past and you will know I am correct in this optimism when banks again get more aggressive by the end of the year.
If you are not in the market to buy, sit back and watch, but if you have been thinking have we hit the bottom, the answer is YES. Jump in now. A year from today you will be bragging about what you paid for your new home. Below is a graph showing today's sales prices are almost exactly back where they were in 2005. They won’t be here very long. Take advantage.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Should I Switch From Oil To Gas For My Heating Needs?
While no one can predict fuel prices in the long term, we can look at current pricing and give an educated guess at what prices will be in the future. As with all predictions, the further the time line the less accurate this guess will be. Guessing on pricing in 2014 is very possible, 2020 a little less so and guessing prices in 2030 will need more then good luck. What we can do is look at the reason to ask the question, and then look at the various different answers. An example, if your home has a heating system that uses hot water (a boiler), your units life expectancy can be as much as 50 years. If we are heating with any kind of furnace (hot air), we can expect a life half as long, making the decision (shorter amortization) on fuels more important.
If you’re thinking of switching from oil to gas and need to replace your current oil burner or oil furnace you can expect to pay between $4,500 and $7,000. Hot air systems (furnaces) representing the lower end and hot water systems (boilers) represent the higher end of this price range. In addition, on top of these prices expect to pay an additional $1,000-$2,000 if you choose any of the highest efficiency (92 percent to 95 percent efficiency) units.
“They (the public) can expect to save in the range of 15 percent to 34 percent. That’s because natural gas is a lot cheaper than oil right now,” says National Grid’s Dennis McCaffery. To calculate the savings you can figure saving between $150-$340 per $1000 of current heating costs. Here's the rub, if you are switching to natural gas it’s clear the switch is worth it but if you are in a rural area where only propane is available you might want to think differently. Currently propane averages 30%-35% more costly than natural gas and with that extra cost, while burning a cleaner burning fuel, it’s price is similar to that of oil.
To add a few more complexities, gas is now being touted as the next big fuel. It is assumed that New York will soon join Pennsylvania and other states as a large producer of hydro-fracked gas. Whether this comes to pass is still in question (and will become a topic of a future post), but there is no question that domestic gas production will increase significantly in the next decade. With natural gas prices at historic lows now one would think that this means that if even more gas comes to market the prices will continue to be low. That’s where the problem lies. If you listen to any of the biggest domestic gas pipeline companies you will discover that their goals and long term plans have nothing to do with domestic sales. In fact most acknowledge that all this exploration and drilling is actually for foreign sales, mostly in Asia.
In China, they are preparing to supplement their coal production with imported gas. Because gas is so much cleaner, China has little choice but to pay a premium for this alternative fuel. The bottom line is that it’s hard to see gas prices doing anything else but rising. The November 12th headline of Money Morning was “ 2013 Natural Gas Price Forecast: Higher Prices Mean an End to the Bear Market.” These are the guys betting on the future prices and they feel very confident in the short term rise in natural gas prices. “In fact, natural gas prices have already rallied to $3.40 per mmbtu, up 79% in just six months, but regardless the day-to-day movements, the long-term outlook for natural gas prices remains bullish, particularly in light of a steady increase in demand,” says Don Miller, Contributing Writer to Money Morning. I’m sure that you could find energy experts who say the opposite, but the real issue is whether these fuel companies make the needed connections to their Asian users. My bet is that they will.
In the relatively small area covered by National Grid (an Albany New York utility) the current conversion rate is 14,000 conversions a year. One can assume that these conversions are taking place all over the country and will continue as long as the gas prices remain low. Interestingly enough, with each conversion demand is increased and supply reduced. Additionally, many, including spokesmen from Southern Company believe "Company officials say they have to think 30 years ahead. There’s a need to develop more natural gas infrastructure in terms of new pipelines and increased storage capacity. We need to determine the pace and degree of natural gas exports. They say once the U.S. begins exporting natural gas, prices will rise domestically."
Lastly I remind my readers that we have seen a similar pricing before. Our current prices are equal to 1976 prices. Do you really believe it is possible for these prices to stay this low for very long? I don’t. If we compare our domestic prices to those of Europe and Japan you can see from the chart below that there is only one direction for gas future pricing.
If you’re thinking of switching from oil to gas and need to replace your current oil burner or oil furnace you can expect to pay between $4,500 and $7,000. Hot air systems (furnaces) representing the lower end and hot water systems (boilers) represent the higher end of this price range. In addition, on top of these prices expect to pay an additional $1,000-$2,000 if you choose any of the highest efficiency (92 percent to 95 percent efficiency) units.
“They (the public) can expect to save in the range of 15 percent to 34 percent. That’s because natural gas is a lot cheaper than oil right now,” says National Grid’s Dennis McCaffery. To calculate the savings you can figure saving between $150-$340 per $1000 of current heating costs. Here's the rub, if you are switching to natural gas it’s clear the switch is worth it but if you are in a rural area where only propane is available you might want to think differently. Currently propane averages 30%-35% more costly than natural gas and with that extra cost, while burning a cleaner burning fuel, it’s price is similar to that of oil.
To add a few more complexities, gas is now being touted as the next big fuel. It is assumed that New York will soon join Pennsylvania and other states as a large producer of hydro-fracked gas. Whether this comes to pass is still in question (and will become a topic of a future post), but there is no question that domestic gas production will increase significantly in the next decade. With natural gas prices at historic lows now one would think that this means that if even more gas comes to market the prices will continue to be low. That’s where the problem lies. If you listen to any of the biggest domestic gas pipeline companies you will discover that their goals and long term plans have nothing to do with domestic sales. In fact most acknowledge that all this exploration and drilling is actually for foreign sales, mostly in Asia.
In China, they are preparing to supplement their coal production with imported gas. Because gas is so much cleaner, China has little choice but to pay a premium for this alternative fuel. The bottom line is that it’s hard to see gas prices doing anything else but rising. The November 12th headline of Money Morning was “ 2013 Natural Gas Price Forecast: Higher Prices Mean an End to the Bear Market.” These are the guys betting on the future prices and they feel very confident in the short term rise in natural gas prices. “In fact, natural gas prices have already rallied to $3.40 per mmbtu, up 79% in just six months, but regardless the day-to-day movements, the long-term outlook for natural gas prices remains bullish, particularly in light of a steady increase in demand,” says Don Miller, Contributing Writer to Money Morning. I’m sure that you could find energy experts who say the opposite, but the real issue is whether these fuel companies make the needed connections to their Asian users. My bet is that they will.
In the relatively small area covered by National Grid (an Albany New York utility) the current conversion rate is 14,000 conversions a year. One can assume that these conversions are taking place all over the country and will continue as long as the gas prices remain low. Interestingly enough, with each conversion demand is increased and supply reduced. Additionally, many, including spokesmen from Southern Company believe "Company officials say they have to think 30 years ahead. There’s a need to develop more natural gas infrastructure in terms of new pipelines and increased storage capacity. We need to determine the pace and degree of natural gas exports. They say once the U.S. begins exporting natural gas, prices will rise domestically."
Lastly I remind my readers that we have seen a similar pricing before. Our current prices are equal to 1976 prices. Do you really believe it is possible for these prices to stay this low for very long? I don’t. If we compare our domestic prices to those of Europe and Japan you can see from the chart below that there is only one direction for gas future pricing.
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Getting ready for Springtime- Winter Catalogues
While it has warmed up to a toasty 36 degrees today, and the weatherman says we will continue for a few more days in the daytime defrosting, be careful. The real January weather will return and one of my favorite winter activities is looking through the new plant catalogues that begin to arrive right after the Christmas catalogues stop. My favorite continues to be Johnny’s Select Seeds, but Millers (for fruit trees), Park Seeds and Burpee’s still have a place in my heart for flower seeds.
For supplies, try Gardeners Supply. If you want greenhouse supplies, stay local if possible. One of the largest greenhouse supply companies is right here in Schenectady, Griffin Greenhouse. They deliver in Greene county on Friday’s. You’ll find great supplies at Lowes, Home Depot and even Wal-Mart. My only warning on these are in reference to plants. All of these treat their plants poorly and therefore have sick plants with lots of bad bugs. They will have great prices but just one sick plant can ruin your whole garden.
For organic and heirloom seeds the choices continues to grow. Seeds of Change, Territorial, Bountiful Gardens, and last but not least The Seed Savers Exchange offers varieties that are decades old and will not only sell you great seeds but you will be helping a great organization when you do. If indoor tropicals are your thing, check out the Logee’s catalogue. Now is the time to get ready for spring and order your seeds. Flower seeds generally need to be planted 8-14 weeks before needed and may take between 4-10 days to germinate. All seed packets should be read carefully as many seeds have different requirements.
Don’t wait until spring to start start getting ready for the spring. Now is the time to get things going. If you want to extend the season it’s best to extend in both directions. While I generally use this time of year to plant flowering plant seeds, I also continue to plant lettuce and other greens. The short days are lengthening and I rarely need any additional lighting but if you do, now is the time to purchase the springtime needed supplies. That’s it for now, Happy Planting.
For supplies, try Gardeners Supply. If you want greenhouse supplies, stay local if possible. One of the largest greenhouse supply companies is right here in Schenectady, Griffin Greenhouse. They deliver in Greene county on Friday’s. You’ll find great supplies at Lowes, Home Depot and even Wal-Mart. My only warning on these are in reference to plants. All of these treat their plants poorly and therefore have sick plants with lots of bad bugs. They will have great prices but just one sick plant can ruin your whole garden.
For organic and heirloom seeds the choices continues to grow. Seeds of Change, Territorial, Bountiful Gardens, and last but not least The Seed Savers Exchange offers varieties that are decades old and will not only sell you great seeds but you will be helping a great organization when you do. If indoor tropicals are your thing, check out the Logee’s catalogue. Now is the time to get ready for spring and order your seeds. Flower seeds generally need to be planted 8-14 weeks before needed and may take between 4-10 days to germinate. All seed packets should be read carefully as many seeds have different requirements.
Don’t wait until spring to start start getting ready for the spring. Now is the time to get things going. If you want to extend the season it’s best to extend in both directions. While I generally use this time of year to plant flowering plant seeds, I also continue to plant lettuce and other greens. The short days are lengthening and I rarely need any additional lighting but if you do, now is the time to purchase the springtime needed supplies. That’s it for now, Happy Planting.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Breast Cancer, Math Probability and Luck
It’s been a little longer than usual since my last post. I try and make most of my posts about my knowledge of real estate, construction and sustainability whenever possible. (Yes, I do get into politics from time to time.) Sometimes, however I have to just let go. This one is for me. If you don’t want to see this personal side of me better skip this one. It could get heavy. On December 10, 2012 we found out that my wife Claudia had our second bout with breast cancer. Our last cancer experience was over 10 years ago so we were told we had past the important recurrence point some 3 years ago. So much for the numbers.
We found out about this cancer totally by accident. Claudia had been in an accident in March and we believed that her breast implant (from her previous mastectomy) had broken. She started getting small lumps on her breast which when checked out were silicon, not tumors. (Good news.) A radiology teckie also saw a shadow she didn't understand but thought should be looked at and so when we did the surgery to clean up the broken implant we had the breast surgeon remove and biopsy the mass that was found by the radiologist. That mass that turned out to be a 3mm invasive cancer with one edge unclear. There is obviously much more to this story but this is not the point of this post. (We are waiting for a confirmation of the next surgery as I write this). No, the point of this post is not about cancer. It’s about math, and our blindness to its reality.
This particular cancer is a very common form of breast cancer with the classic treatment options being either a lumpectomy with either radiation, chemotherapy or both after the lumpectomy or a mastectomy (the more radical approach). We were told by the doctors (both of whom we really like, trust and have faith in) that the recidivism rate for (Claudia’s specific case) and doing a lumpectomy (and follow up) was between .6%-.9% and the recidivism rate for the mastectomy was between .3%-.4%, “so they were both about the same.” Am I crazy? While math was not my best subject I was good enough to figure out that the difference between 7.5% (the average of the lumpectomy rate) and 3.5% (the average of the mastectomy rate) was 4% (or over 100% more likely). To me four more recurrences (and possibly an additional four deaths per one hundred) was a no brainer. We would go with the mastectomy.
I know that there may be a woman out there who have chosen the lumpectomy solution for their personal form of breast cancer and I don’t want to scare them or make them feel that they may have made a bad or incorrect choice. Remember, all cases are different and there are too many variables to go into in a short posting. These are all personal choices and I’m sure age is a consideration to some as well. I know that we would have viewed the options differently if Claudia was 30, not 64. I just want my readers to understand that too often we simply don’t do the math or more commonly, interpret it correctly (which is to say without bias.) The doctors view was that one had a 92.5% success rate and the other a 96.5% success rate. (Both very high and very positive.) While their numbers were correct, I felt that they were looking at the wrong side of the probability equation. The focus of this kind of decision making should not be looked at from the success rate, it should be looked from the failure rate and this rate was twice as likely.
We live in a world where everyone wants to surround themselves with points of view that they agree with and support their current opinions. They want to be “positive.” They don’t want to face the Black Swan. The Black Swan is a book about the “The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” The author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, considers the most important events in our lives to be these Black Swans. Cancer is generally a Black Swan. How do highly educated doctors not see the significant difference in negative probabilities? The answer, easily. The Black Swan taught me to view predictions from the point of view of the possibilities of the highly improbable.
As we go about our lives, learning to listen to what we don’t want to, surrounding ourselves with contrary opinions and analyzing statistics honestly is important. You’ll find everyone has a point of view and philosophy that they are preaching with supporting data. Our surgeons wanted to do the lumpectomy. When asked why they had no real answer, just the numbers. My guess is we'll never know. I assume it’s less surgery but whether that’s really the reason is just a guess. The number of Black Swan possibilities that await us from hospital check in, to the surgery itself, to the results of the dissection of the lymph nodes are all areas of potentially great, or terrible news. Sometimes it comes down to luck, but an honest analysis of the facts, no matter what is shows is the best course of action. One of my favorite lines from the movies is from Dirty Harry, with Clint Eastwood. Sometimes you've gotta ask yourself a question: "Do I feel lucky?"
We found out about this cancer totally by accident. Claudia had been in an accident in March and we believed that her breast implant (from her previous mastectomy) had broken. She started getting small lumps on her breast which when checked out were silicon, not tumors. (Good news.) A radiology teckie also saw a shadow she didn't understand but thought should be looked at and so when we did the surgery to clean up the broken implant we had the breast surgeon remove and biopsy the mass that was found by the radiologist. That mass that turned out to be a 3mm invasive cancer with one edge unclear. There is obviously much more to this story but this is not the point of this post. (We are waiting for a confirmation of the next surgery as I write this). No, the point of this post is not about cancer. It’s about math, and our blindness to its reality.
This particular cancer is a very common form of breast cancer with the classic treatment options being either a lumpectomy with either radiation, chemotherapy or both after the lumpectomy or a mastectomy (the more radical approach). We were told by the doctors (both of whom we really like, trust and have faith in) that the recidivism rate for (Claudia’s specific case) and doing a lumpectomy (and follow up) was between .6%-.9% and the recidivism rate for the mastectomy was between .3%-.4%, “so they were both about the same.” Am I crazy? While math was not my best subject I was good enough to figure out that the difference between 7.5% (the average of the lumpectomy rate) and 3.5% (the average of the mastectomy rate) was 4% (or over 100% more likely). To me four more recurrences (and possibly an additional four deaths per one hundred) was a no brainer. We would go with the mastectomy.
I know that there may be a woman out there who have chosen the lumpectomy solution for their personal form of breast cancer and I don’t want to scare them or make them feel that they may have made a bad or incorrect choice. Remember, all cases are different and there are too many variables to go into in a short posting. These are all personal choices and I’m sure age is a consideration to some as well. I know that we would have viewed the options differently if Claudia was 30, not 64. I just want my readers to understand that too often we simply don’t do the math or more commonly, interpret it correctly (which is to say without bias.) The doctors view was that one had a 92.5% success rate and the other a 96.5% success rate. (Both very high and very positive.) While their numbers were correct, I felt that they were looking at the wrong side of the probability equation. The focus of this kind of decision making should not be looked at from the success rate, it should be looked from the failure rate and this rate was twice as likely.
We live in a world where everyone wants to surround themselves with points of view that they agree with and support their current opinions. They want to be “positive.” They don’t want to face the Black Swan. The Black Swan is a book about the “The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” The author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, considers the most important events in our lives to be these Black Swans. Cancer is generally a Black Swan. How do highly educated doctors not see the significant difference in negative probabilities? The answer, easily. The Black Swan taught me to view predictions from the point of view of the possibilities of the highly improbable.
As we go about our lives, learning to listen to what we don’t want to, surrounding ourselves with contrary opinions and analyzing statistics honestly is important. You’ll find everyone has a point of view and philosophy that they are preaching with supporting data. Our surgeons wanted to do the lumpectomy. When asked why they had no real answer, just the numbers. My guess is we'll never know. I assume it’s less surgery but whether that’s really the reason is just a guess. The number of Black Swan possibilities that await us from hospital check in, to the surgery itself, to the results of the dissection of the lymph nodes are all areas of potentially great, or terrible news. Sometimes it comes down to luck, but an honest analysis of the facts, no matter what is shows is the best course of action. One of my favorite lines from the movies is from Dirty Harry, with Clint Eastwood. Sometimes you've gotta ask yourself a question: "Do I feel lucky?"
Friday, December 21, 2012
Newtown's Mirror On All Of Us
For those who follow my posts you will note that it has been a few more days than usual for me to write about the terrible events in Connecticut. For most of us our immediate reactions and our current views have changed. Our immediate response included disbelief, disgust and depression. These were mostly children after all. This is a reasonable response. Unfortunately the usual response immediately led to the placement of blame, the first and most obvious focused on gun control. Those in favor of more controls said it's time to change the nation's gun laws. The opposite side rightfully points out that these guns were purchased in a state with very restrictive gun laws and purchased legally. I'm not going to get into this debate. In my mind this was much more of a gun safety issue then a gun law issue but both sides have a rational point of view. I don't think anyone would disagree with the need for all guns to be locked up when not in use. Every day 34 people die in america of gun violence. Rarely are these guns taken from a locked case.
Some have extended the discussion to include other logical restriction or safety issues like renewing the assault gun ban, limitations on gun show exemptions, cooperation between localities, state and federal criminal databases, and the end of the sale of weapons of war and armor piercing ammunition, whose only use is to kill police officers. These are all important and maybe we will have this small window to put most in effect. I tend to doubt the cowards that serve in congress will find consensus, but we can always hope.
Finally, we see mental health issues on the table as well. In this case it is obvious that this shooter had such issues which fell between the cracks sometime after his high school graduation. It's hard to call it a crack when it is more of a canyon, but this canyon grew out of mistakes we , as a country made in the 1960's and 70's, and they have come back to haunt us. Before that time the mentally ill were mistreated inside terrible mental health institutions. It was important to change the abuse taking place in these institutions but the solution was at least as bad as the problem. As institutions were closed we saw the mentally ill become a large part of the prison population as well as a large portion of the homeless population. In 1955 there was one psychiatric bed for every 300 Americans. By 2005 there was one psychiatric bed for every 3,000 Americans. Additionally, mental health was never considered part of health. Until mental health is part of our definition of health the problem will continue to grow.
As anyone who is part of a family knows, each family contains members who need mental health solutions. Very few get what they need. The Surgeon General's best current estimate is that 19% of all American's have some form of mental illness. If that sounds scary, it is because even the term “mental illness” presses some major buttons in our minds. While most are totally functional, it is estimated that 2.3% have work disabilities and up to 15% have functional disabilities due to their mental issues. In 1983 6.4% of inmates were considered severely mentally ill. Today that number is 16% and growing. Now more than three times more seriously mentally ill persons are in jails and prisons than in hospitals. The last time we have seen numbers like this was in the 1840's.
As far as our prison population’s growth, there are now more Americans in jail -- 6 million -- than there were in Stalin's Gulag, reports Fareed Zakaria, in a column called "Incarceration Nation." We have gone from 150 inmates per 100,000 in US population to over 760 inmates per 100,000. (An increase of 500%). In addition, a large reason for this explosive growth includes both the incarceration of both the mentally ill and those convicted of drug offences, both of which we know would be better treated in hospitals, not jails.
I could go on and on quoting both gun control and mental health statistics but we all know that one important difference between the past and the present is that any solution today will require the reduction of costs in one area (like incarcerations) and an increase in others (mainly mental health and drug rehabilitation). We are no longer capable of just throwing money at both. The results have been unacceptable. To change, as a country, we will need to accept a few realities:
1. Gun ownership is here to stay and a part of our american life. I live in upstate New York and almost everyone owns a gun. They use them to hunt, target shoot or just for protection. The left will have to accept this fact. At the same time most gun owners understand that none of these reasons to own firearms explain the sale of weapons of war, armor piercing ammunition or the need for high capacity magazines. We all give up some of our rights for the good of our fellow citizens. We can’t yell fire in a theater and we can have any kind of gun we want anytime we want. That’s life. It may not be fair be we can’t be spoiled children if we care about our children.
2. The war on drugs has FAILED. Period. It’s time to stop putting people in jail for what people have been doing for thousands of years and will most likely continue for the foreseeable future. We would be much better off as a county to keep these people out of our jails and in rehabilitation centers where they might actually get help with their problems (and save a lot more money as hospitals cost a lot less than prisons).
3. We must accept that health includes mental health. You cannot separate the two. You can not be healthy if you are not mentally healthy. We must take the stigma out of this disease. If you need a Xanax to feel less anxiety you should be no more ashamed of that than you would needing 2 Advil to feel less back pain. Mental health should be a right, whether you are a student or soldier, a minor or a senior. We all benefit when those that need mental health solutions get them. No one believes that this also wouldn't save money. (By the way, both mentally ill and or drug addicted inmate costs the system more than “normal inmates”.)
The window is open. It won’t be open very long. If we don’t see the big picture now and let go of our biases and systematic denial of the facts we may never solve our problems. Americans have always been innovators. We have a history of creative problem solving. This is one we can solve. The President has requested that the Vice President report back to the nation by the end of January with solutions. If all of these issues are not part of the solution horrendous acts such as we have seen last week will simply happen again.
Some have extended the discussion to include other logical restriction or safety issues like renewing the assault gun ban, limitations on gun show exemptions, cooperation between localities, state and federal criminal databases, and the end of the sale of weapons of war and armor piercing ammunition, whose only use is to kill police officers. These are all important and maybe we will have this small window to put most in effect. I tend to doubt the cowards that serve in congress will find consensus, but we can always hope.
Finally, we see mental health issues on the table as well. In this case it is obvious that this shooter had such issues which fell between the cracks sometime after his high school graduation. It's hard to call it a crack when it is more of a canyon, but this canyon grew out of mistakes we , as a country made in the 1960's and 70's, and they have come back to haunt us. Before that time the mentally ill were mistreated inside terrible mental health institutions. It was important to change the abuse taking place in these institutions but the solution was at least as bad as the problem. As institutions were closed we saw the mentally ill become a large part of the prison population as well as a large portion of the homeless population. In 1955 there was one psychiatric bed for every 300 Americans. By 2005 there was one psychiatric bed for every 3,000 Americans. Additionally, mental health was never considered part of health. Until mental health is part of our definition of health the problem will continue to grow.
As anyone who is part of a family knows, each family contains members who need mental health solutions. Very few get what they need. The Surgeon General's best current estimate is that 19% of all American's have some form of mental illness. If that sounds scary, it is because even the term “mental illness” presses some major buttons in our minds. While most are totally functional, it is estimated that 2.3% have work disabilities and up to 15% have functional disabilities due to their mental issues. In 1983 6.4% of inmates were considered severely mentally ill. Today that number is 16% and growing. Now more than three times more seriously mentally ill persons are in jails and prisons than in hospitals. The last time we have seen numbers like this was in the 1840's.
As far as our prison population’s growth, there are now more Americans in jail -- 6 million -- than there were in Stalin's Gulag, reports Fareed Zakaria, in a column called "Incarceration Nation." We have gone from 150 inmates per 100,000 in US population to over 760 inmates per 100,000. (An increase of 500%). In addition, a large reason for this explosive growth includes both the incarceration of both the mentally ill and those convicted of drug offences, both of which we know would be better treated in hospitals, not jails.
I could go on and on quoting both gun control and mental health statistics but we all know that one important difference between the past and the present is that any solution today will require the reduction of costs in one area (like incarcerations) and an increase in others (mainly mental health and drug rehabilitation). We are no longer capable of just throwing money at both. The results have been unacceptable. To change, as a country, we will need to accept a few realities:
1. Gun ownership is here to stay and a part of our american life. I live in upstate New York and almost everyone owns a gun. They use them to hunt, target shoot or just for protection. The left will have to accept this fact. At the same time most gun owners understand that none of these reasons to own firearms explain the sale of weapons of war, armor piercing ammunition or the need for high capacity magazines. We all give up some of our rights for the good of our fellow citizens. We can’t yell fire in a theater and we can have any kind of gun we want anytime we want. That’s life. It may not be fair be we can’t be spoiled children if we care about our children.
2. The war on drugs has FAILED. Period. It’s time to stop putting people in jail for what people have been doing for thousands of years and will most likely continue for the foreseeable future. We would be much better off as a county to keep these people out of our jails and in rehabilitation centers where they might actually get help with their problems (and save a lot more money as hospitals cost a lot less than prisons).
3. We must accept that health includes mental health. You cannot separate the two. You can not be healthy if you are not mentally healthy. We must take the stigma out of this disease. If you need a Xanax to feel less anxiety you should be no more ashamed of that than you would needing 2 Advil to feel less back pain. Mental health should be a right, whether you are a student or soldier, a minor or a senior. We all benefit when those that need mental health solutions get them. No one believes that this also wouldn't save money. (By the way, both mentally ill and or drug addicted inmate costs the system more than “normal inmates”.)
The window is open. It won’t be open very long. If we don’t see the big picture now and let go of our biases and systematic denial of the facts we may never solve our problems. Americans have always been innovators. We have a history of creative problem solving. This is one we can solve. The President has requested that the Vice President report back to the nation by the end of January with solutions. If all of these issues are not part of the solution horrendous acts such as we have seen last week will simply happen again.
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